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Food basket in Kayogoro

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

22,717–32,579

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

22,660–36,795

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 25,990 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 22,717 and 32,579 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 22,660 and 36,795 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kayogoro: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 25,990 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 22,717 and 32,579 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 22,660 and 36,795 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 23,284–29,078 25,970 21,902–31,778
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 22,574–30,041 25,906 20,644–33,360
Nov 2026
Next month		 22,717–32,579 26,556 20,925–40,129
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 22,710–34,083 27,087 20,804–41,400
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 22,660–36,795 27,336 20,672–45,204
Cost history (91 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202625,990
Jul 202622,350
Jun 202625,800
May 202628,033
Apr 202630,435
Mar 202630,933
Feb 202628,930
Jan 202624,855
Dec 202524,674
Nov 202522,723
Oct 202524,223
Sept 202525,855
Aug 202524,460
Jul 202528,950
Jun 202530,690
May 202528,633
Apr 202531,061
Mar 202529,710
Feb 202528,983
Jan 202526,351
Dec 202428,006
Nov 202427,877
Oct 202424,034
Sept 202423,541
Aug 202423,099
Jul 202425,219
Jun 202425,465
May 202425,999
Apr 202426,964
Mar 202427,675
Feb 202427,708
Jan 202429,738
Dec 202327,958
Nov 202328,137
Oct 202328,718
Sept 202328,838
Aug 202327,150
Jul 202326,359
Jun 202328,748
May 202332,325
Apr 202332,319
Mar 202333,425
Feb 202328,274
Dec 202223,836
Nov 202222,668
Oct 202219,024
Sept 202217,465
Aug 202217,836
Jul 202215,390
May 202216,477
Apr 202216,439
Mar 202215,744
Feb 202214,850
Jan 202215,664
Oct 202113,650
May 202113,746
Apr 202113,341
Mar 202113,072
Feb 202113,178
Jan 202112,816
Dec 202013,616
Nov 202013,286
Oct 202011,190
Sept 202011,400
Aug 202010,428
Jul 20209,905
Jun 20209,774
Mar 202010,680
Feb 20209,209
Jan 20208,582
Dec 20199,329
Oct 20197,084
Aug 20197,773
Jul 20198,686
Jun 20198,399
May 20198,429
Mar 20198,211
Feb 20199,906
Jan 20198,812
Dec 20189,197
Nov 20187,736
Oct 20188,061
Sept 20188,393
Aug 20189,087
Jul 20189,445
Jun 201810,947
May 201811,020
Apr 201812,298
Mar 201811,948
Feb 20189,861
Jan 201813,687

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620