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Oil (palm) in Kayongozi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,964–11,163

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,136–12,291

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,964 and 11,163 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,136 and 12,291 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kayongozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,964 and 11,163 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,136 and 12,291 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,960–11,236 9,969 8,478–12,143 11,266 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,381–11,048 9,461 7,708–12,031 10,469 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,964–11,163 9,160 7,237–12,617 9,714 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,943–11,297 9,103 7,150–11,791 9,741 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,136–12,291 9,752 7,004–14,447 10,756 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,778
Jul 20269,500
Jun 202610,964
May 202611,775
Apr 202610,875
Mar 20269,917
Feb 202610,417
Jan 202611,364
Dec 202511,097
Nov 202511,389
Oct 202511,208
Sept 202511,562
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,108
Jun 202511,370
May 202511,088
Apr 202511,389
Mar 20259,200
Feb 20259,271
Jan 20257,206
Dec 20246,576
Nov 20245,938
Oct 20246,646
Sept 20247,031
Aug 20247,250
Jul 20246,000
Jun 20246,333
May 20246,406
Apr 20245,867
Mar 20245,250
Feb 20246,500
Jan 20245,367
Nov 20235,400
Oct 20236,310
Sept 20236,056
Aug 20235,258
Jul 20235,570
Jun 20236,361
May 20235,465
Apr 20235,575
Mar 20235,375
Feb 20235,083
Dec 20224,282
Nov 20224,579
Oct 20224,733
Sept 20224,782
Aug 20224,962
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,640
Apr 20224,200
Mar 20224,098
Feb 20223,888
Jan 20223,600
Oct 20214,650
May 20212,850
Apr 20212,976
Mar 20212,600
Feb 20212,689
Jan 20212,725
Dec 20202,307
Nov 20202,279
Oct 20202,300
Sept 20202,369
Aug 20202,661
Jul 20202,541
Jun 20202,833
Mar 20202,600
Feb 20202,433
Jan 20202,767
Dec 20192,500
Nov 20192,440
Oct 20192,300
Sept 20192,967
Aug 20192,883
Jul 20193,317
Jun 20193,183
May 20192,925
Mar 20192,367
Feb 20192,225
Jan 20192,117
Dec 20181,933
Nov 20181,986
Oct 20182,233
Sept 20183,150
Aug 20183,667
Jul 20183,917
Jun 20183,867
May 20182,829
Apr 20182,738
Mar 20182,350
Feb 20182,450
Jan 20182,250

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2440-62-retail-kg.