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Cassava flour in Kayongozi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,102–1,983

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,126–2,220

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,102 and 1,983 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,126 and 2,220 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kayongozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,102 and 1,983 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,126 and 2,220 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,148–1,584 1,334 1,063–1,743 1,467 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,087–1,681 1,323 1,002–1,760 1,357 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,102–1,983 1,328 976–2,420 1,588 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,078–2,003 1,330 982–2,582 1,539 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,126–2,220 1,366 976–2,761 1,636 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,333
Jul 20261,375
Jun 20261,452
May 20261,374
Apr 20261,490
Mar 20261,400
Feb 20261,603
Jan 20261,757
Dec 20251,392
Nov 2025794
Oct 2025948
Sept 2025975
Aug 20251,933
Jul 20251,641
Jun 20251,707
May 20251,286
Apr 20251,482
Mar 20251,445
Feb 20251,710
Jan 20251,395
Dec 20241,391
Nov 20241,453
Oct 20241,452
Sept 20241,390
Aug 20241,246
Jul 20241,267
Jun 20241,434
May 20241,202
Apr 20241,300
Mar 20241,183
Feb 20241,667
Jan 20241,433
Nov 20231,550
Oct 20231,640
Sept 20231,649
Aug 20231,423
Jul 20231,613
Jun 20231,398
May 20231,456
Apr 20231,625
Mar 20231,912
Feb 20231,550
Dec 20221,127
Nov 20221,281
Oct 20221,008
Sept 2022883
Aug 2022820
Jun 2022900
May 2022823
Apr 2022833
Mar 2022874
Feb 2022812
Jan 2022700
Oct 2021675
May 2021750
Apr 2021731
Mar 2021700
Feb 2021744
Jan 2021788
Dec 2020688
Nov 2020638
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020484
Aug 2020444
Jul 2020491
Jun 2020425
Mar 2020558
Feb 2020492
Jan 2020533
Dec 2019433
Oct 2019333
Aug 2019333
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019350
May 2019383
Mar 2019392
Feb 2019650
Jan 2019417
Dec 2018408
Nov 2018393
Oct 2018392
Sept 2018517
Aug 2018442
Jul 2018492
Jun 2018550
May 2018629
Apr 2018688
Mar 2018625
Feb 2018592
Jan 2018838
Dec 2017810
Nov 2017883
Oct 2017850
Sept 2017870
Aug 2017960
Jul 2017940
Jun 20171,000
May 2017975
Apr 2017950
Mar 20171,100
Feb 20171,017
Jan 20171,000
Dec 2016958
Nov 2016803
Oct 2016693

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2440-74-retail-kg.