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Maize flour in Kayongozi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal June 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,528–2,499

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,456–2,827

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In June 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 27% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,528 and 2,499 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,456 and 2,827 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Kayongozi: BIF per KGIn June 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 27% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,528 and 2,499 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,456 and 2,827 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,515–2,162 1,772 1,350–2,357 2,351 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,496–2,251 1,824 1,323–2,867 2,357 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,528–2,499 1,862 1,285–3,613 2,600 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,522–2,753 1,870 1,279–5,286 2,961 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,456–2,827 1,839 1,231–5,238 2,797 –
Price history (101 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Jun 20261,475
May 20261,555
Apr 20261,717
Mar 20262,025
Feb 20262,362
Jan 20262,333
Dec 20252,304
Nov 20251,800
Oct 20251,858
Sept 20251,644
Jul 20251,638
Jun 20251,697
May 20251,476
Apr 20251,712
Mar 20254,867
Feb 20252,542
Jan 20252,767
Dec 20242,982
Nov 20242,569
Oct 20242,082
Sept 20242,156
Aug 20242,000
Jul 20241,875
Jun 20241,767
May 20241,460
Apr 20241,522
Mar 20241,650
Jan 20242,200
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20232,407
Sept 20232,255
Aug 20232,154
Jul 20232,362
Jun 20231,677
May 20231,725
Apr 20231,875
Mar 20232,188
Feb 20232,100
Dec 20222,200
Nov 20222,235
Oct 20221,783
Sept 20221,600
Aug 20221,635
Jun 20221,100
May 20221,002
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,221
Feb 20221,212
Jan 20221,400
Oct 20211,200
May 2021900
Apr 2021861
Mar 2021962
Feb 20211,244
Jan 20211,225
Dec 20201,195
Nov 20201,074
Oct 2020850
Sept 2020884
Aug 20201,000
Jul 2020963
Jun 2020850
Mar 2020883
Feb 20201,108
Jan 20201,433
Dec 20191,233
Oct 20191,020
Aug 2019967
Jul 20191,133
Jun 2019617
May 2019625
Mar 2019767
Feb 2019917
Jan 2019783
Dec 2018758
Nov 2018714
Oct 2018633
Sept 2018750
Aug 2018658
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018625
May 2018671
Apr 2018607
Mar 2018725
Feb 2018833
Jan 2018940
Dec 20171,180
Nov 20171,267
Oct 20171,300
Sept 20171,350
Aug 20171,240
Jul 20171,230
Jun 20171,217
May 20171,167
Apr 20171,133
Mar 20171,175
Feb 20171,000
Jan 20171,700
Dec 20161,900
Nov 20161,025
Oct 20161,008

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: June 2026. Series id: burundi-2440-76-retail-kg.