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Oil (vegetable) in Kayongozi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,599–17,702

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,484–18,284

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,599 and 17,702 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,484 and 18,284 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kayongozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,599 and 17,702 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,484 and 18,284 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,687–16,532 14,489 12,099–17,358 16,457 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,609–17,161 14,620 11,859–18,867 16,694 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,599–17,702 14,338 11,709–20,364 16,236 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,642–18,251 14,414 11,222–21,137 16,692 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,484–18,284 14,531 11,291–18,824 17,414 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,000
Jul 202612,000
Jun 202613,229
May 202616,127
Apr 202616,450
Mar 202615,333
Feb 202616,308
Jan 202617,000
Dec 202515,688
Nov 202515,778
Oct 202516,083
Sept 202516,000
Aug 202516,000
Jul 202516,333
Jun 202519,036
May 202516,392
Apr 202516,471
Mar 202516,750
Feb 202514,905
Jan 202513,206
Dec 202412,088
Nov 202411,688
Oct 202411,604
Sept 202411,009
Aug 202410,750
Jul 202410,583
Jun 202410,703
May 20249,396
Apr 20249,194
Mar 20248,250
Feb 20248,000
Jan 20248,333
Nov 20238,000
Oct 20239,467
Sept 20238,738
Aug 20238,865
Jul 20237,833
Jun 20238,023
May 20239,529
Apr 20236,775
Mar 20238,625
Feb 20238,000
Dec 20228,818
Nov 20227,882
Oct 20228,417
Sept 20228,630
Aug 20228,058
Jun 20228,000
May 20227,742
Apr 20227,167
Mar 20228,000
Feb 20227,781
Jan 20226,500
Oct 20216,750
May 20215,000
Apr 20215,000
Mar 20215,125
Feb 20215,000
Jan 20215,125
Dec 20204,088
Nov 20204,622
Oct 20204,500
Sept 20204,500
Aug 20204,611
Jul 20205,096
Jun 20204,417
Mar 20204,167
Feb 20204,083
Jan 20204,500
Dec 20194,250
Nov 20194,300
Oct 20194,167
Sept 20194,250
Aug 20194,167
Jul 20194,083
Jun 20194,167
May 20194,333
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20194,740
Jan 20194,250
Dec 20184,500
Nov 20184,500
Oct 20184,500
Sept 20184,500
Aug 20184,500
Jul 20184,500
Jun 20184,500
May 20184,333
Apr 20184,571
Mar 20184,250
Feb 20184,167
Jan 20184,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2440-96-retail-kg.