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Food basket in Kayongozi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

24,268–36,175

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

24,845–40,902

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,097 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,268 and 36,175 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,845 and 40,902 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kayongozi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,097 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,268 and 36,175 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,845 and 40,902 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 25,490–31,539 27,914 24,131–33,926
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 24,700–32,054 27,777 23,038–34,430
Nov 2026
Next month		 24,268–36,175 27,962 22,434–42,018
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 24,052–37,657 28,067 22,428–47,281
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 24,845–40,902 29,185 22,570–51,039
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202627,097
Jul 202627,240
Jun 202629,559
May 202631,798
Apr 202633,529
Mar 202629,163
Feb 202631,416
Jan 202634,428
Dec 202529,171
Nov 202521,842
Oct 202523,339
Sept 202524,178
Aug 202535,380
Jul 202531,760
Jun 202532,549
May 202528,320
Apr 202531,298
Mar 202529,613
Feb 202533,143
Jan 202527,980
Dec 202428,104
Nov 202427,733
Oct 202427,669
Sept 202427,373
Aug 202424,851
Jul 202423,660
Jun 202425,732
May 202424,485
Apr 202425,948
Mar 202423,402
Feb 202428,565
Jan 202425,013
Nov 202327,006
Oct 202328,630
Sept 202328,612
Aug 202324,997
Jul 202327,085
Jun 202324,138
May 202327,128
Apr 202329,422
Mar 202333,184
Feb 202327,567
Dec 202221,244
Nov 202223,077
Oct 202218,636
Sept 202216,686
Aug 202215,739
Jun 202216,950
May 202216,202
Apr 202216,018
Mar 202215,457
Feb 202214,671
Jan 202212,864
Oct 202113,288
May 202113,306
Apr 202113,440
Mar 202112,894
Feb 202113,139
Jan 202114,210
Dec 202012,963
Nov 202012,246
Oct 202010,167
Sept 20209,832
Aug 20209,349
Jul 20209,593
Jun 20208,795
Mar 202011,014
Feb 20209,859
Jan 202010,589
Dec 20199,085
Oct 20197,597
Aug 20197,729
Jul 20199,038
Jun 20197,956
May 20198,748
Mar 20198,433
Feb 201911,330
Jan 20198,381
Dec 20188,529
Nov 20187,962
Oct 20187,966
Sept 201810,054
Aug 20189,330
Jul 201810,148
Jun 201810,753
May 201811,475
Apr 201811,804
Mar 201810,696
Feb 201810,321
Jan 201813,358

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620