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Oil (palm) in Kigamba

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,345–11,157

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,944–11,403

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,345 and 11,157 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,944 and 11,403 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kigamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,345 and 11,157 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,944 and 11,403 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,888–10,644 9,488 8,294–10,905 10,642 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,428–10,563 9,095 7,815–12,532 10,130 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,345–11,157 8,976 7,456–14,490 9,868 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,214–11,230 8,887 7,308–13,902 9,657 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,944–11,403 8,948 6,901–14,417 9,730 –
Price history (94 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202610,000
Aug 202610,000
Jul 202610,000
Jun 20269,490
May 20269,302
Apr 20268,917
Mar 20268,986
Feb 20269,063
Jan 20269,627
Dec 20259,650
Nov 202510,562
Oct 202510,088
Sept 202511,750
Aug 202511,333
Jul 202510,667
Jun 202511,200
May 20259,529
Apr 202511,183
Mar 20259,882
Feb 20258,810
Jan 20256,627
Dec 20246,412
Nov 20246,281
Oct 20245,803
Sept 20246,283
Aug 20246,676
Jul 20246,438
Jun 20246,385
May 20246,215
Apr 20245,833
Mar 20245,363
Feb 20245,544
Jan 20245,783
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20235,750
Oct 20236,000
Sept 20236,167
Aug 20237,148
Jul 20235,583
Jun 20235,703
May 20235,635
Apr 20235,304
Mar 20235,029
Feb 20234,562
Jan 20234,467
Dec 20224,609
Nov 20224,974
Oct 20224,902
Sept 20225,281
Aug 20225,344
May 20224,802
Apr 20224,367
Mar 20224,000
Feb 20223,833
Jan 20223,833
Oct 20214,167
Sept 20214,583
May 20213,133
Apr 20212,968
Mar 20212,890
Feb 20212,833
Jan 20212,819
Dec 20202,828
Nov 20202,867
Sept 20202,894
Aug 20202,850
Jul 20202,840
Jun 20202,854
Mar 20202,920
Feb 20202,933
Jan 20202,833
Dec 20192,867
Nov 20192,967
Oct 20193,000
Sept 20193,117
Aug 20193,100
Jul 20193,067
Jun 20192,933
May 20192,933
Mar 20192,733
Feb 20192,967
Jan 20192,567
Dec 20182,567
Nov 20182,567
Oct 20182,750
Sept 20183,150
Aug 20183,233
Jul 20183,500
Jun 20183,500
May 20182,767
Apr 20182,712
Mar 20182,575
Feb 20182,480
Jan 20182,400

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2441-62-retail-kg.