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Maize (white) in Kigamba

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,227–1,864

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,191–1,988

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,227 and 1,864 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,191 and 1,988 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Kigamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,227 and 1,864 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,191 and 1,988 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,192–1,566 1,380 1,113–1,625 1,753 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,187–1,733 1,420 1,083–1,743 1,866 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,227–1,864 1,435 1,059–2,593 2,007 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,222–1,898 1,464 1,073–2,285 2,075 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,191–1,988 1,464 1,043–2,546 2,080 –
Price history (107 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,200
Aug 20261,254
Jul 20261,400
Jun 20261,181
May 20261,196
Apr 20261,083
Mar 20261,345
Feb 20261,629
Jan 20261,745
Dec 20251,675
Nov 20251,376
Oct 20251,600
Sept 20251,591
Aug 20251,367
Jul 20251,567
Jun 20251,529
May 20251,315
Apr 20251,282
Mar 20251,310
Feb 20251,698
Jan 20252,125
Dec 20242,328
Nov 20242,017
Oct 20241,868
Sept 20241,617
Aug 20241,535
Jul 20241,548
Jun 20241,361
May 20241,145
Apr 20241,367
Mar 20241,508
Feb 20241,527
Jan 20241,657
Dec 20231,567
Nov 20231,750
Oct 20231,618
Sept 20231,793
Aug 20231,628
Jul 20231,700
Jun 20231,500
May 20231,267
Apr 20231,385
Mar 20231,837
Feb 20231,650
Jan 20232,033
Dec 20221,673
Nov 20221,871
Oct 20221,558
Sept 20221,512
Aug 20221,415
May 2022854
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022842
Feb 2022900
Jan 20221,167
Oct 2021933
Sept 2021842
May 2021610
Apr 2021659
Mar 2021693
Feb 2021850
Jan 2021850
Dec 2020850
Nov 2020875
Sept 2020836
Aug 2020858
Jul 2020756
Jun 2020735
Mar 2020600
Feb 2020842
Jan 20201,300
Dec 20191,200
Oct 2019933
Aug 2019867
Jul 2019908
Jun 2019583
May 2019493
Mar 2019592
Feb 2019658
Jan 2019817
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018700
Oct 2018708
Sept 2018633
Aug 2018600
Jul 2018575
Jun 2018642
May 2018540
Apr 2018469
Mar 2018650
Feb 2018780
Jan 2018900
Dec 2017990
Nov 20171,125
Oct 20171,080
Sept 20171,100
Aug 20171,062
Jul 20171,103
Jun 20171,100
May 2017967
Apr 20171,025
Mar 20171,067
Feb 20171,183
Jan 20171,142
Dec 20161,186
Nov 20161,050
Oct 2016817

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2441-67-retail-kg.