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Cassava flour in Kigamba

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,204–2,084

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,224–2,179

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,204 and 2,084 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,224 and 2,179 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kigamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,204 and 2,084 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,224 and 2,179 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,081); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,288–1,776 1,575 1,137–1,908 1,833 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,261–1,820 1,550 1,164–2,224 1,729 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,204–2,084 1,536 1,043–2,857 1,916 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,188–2,131 1,530 1,088–3,081 1,790 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,224–2,179 1,564 1,056–2,504 1,853 –
Price history (107 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,200
Aug 20261,628
Jul 20261,200
Jun 20261,608
May 20261,590
Apr 20261,667
Mar 20261,525
Feb 20261,559
Jan 20261,718
Dec 20251,480
Nov 20251,783
Oct 20251,706
Sept 20251,975
Aug 20251,733
Jul 20251,833
Jun 20251,878
May 20251,682
Apr 20251,592
Mar 20251,678
Feb 20251,674
Jan 20251,924
Dec 20241,757
Nov 20241,894
Oct 20241,800
Sept 20241,847
Aug 20241,800
Jul 20241,771
Jun 20241,738
May 20241,757
Apr 20241,733
Mar 20241,786
Feb 20241,804
Jan 20241,723
Dec 20231,733
Nov 20231,750
Oct 20231,753
Sept 20231,738
Aug 20231,869
Jul 20231,817
Jun 20231,815
May 20231,710
Apr 20231,752
Mar 20231,760
Feb 20231,738
Jan 20231,300
Dec 20221,364
Nov 20221,335
Oct 20221,129
Sept 20221,050
Aug 20221,058
May 20221,000
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,067
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,067
Oct 2021967
Sept 2021883
May 2021900
Apr 2021867
Mar 2021862
Feb 2021867
Jan 2021703
Dec 2020678
Nov 2020608
Sept 2020672
Aug 2020633
Jul 2020689
Jun 2020677
Mar 2020600
Feb 2020592
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019600
Oct 2019475
Aug 2019517
Jul 2019520
Jun 2019533
May 2019483
Mar 2019600
Feb 2019558
Jan 2019600
Dec 2018575
Nov 2018667
Oct 2018533
Sept 2018750
Aug 2018742
Jul 2018850
Jun 2018883
May 2018917
Apr 2018944
Mar 20181,050
Feb 20181,170
Jan 20181,200
Dec 20171,210
Nov 20171,200
Oct 20171,200
Sept 20171,200
Aug 20171,175
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,267
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,150
Feb 20171,167
Jan 20171,122
Dec 2016979
Nov 2016825
Oct 2016767

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2441-74-retail-kg.