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Maize flour in Kigamba

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,543–2,346

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,525–2,706

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,543 and 2,346 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,525 and 2,706 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Kigamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,543 and 2,346 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,525 and 2,706 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,935); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,500–1,921 1,685 1,356–2,714 2,054 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,488–2,070 1,699 1,305–3,006 2,134 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,543–2,346 1,732 1,301–3,997 2,301 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,539–2,602 1,778 1,346–5,935 2,388 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,525–2,706 1,793 1,276–5,777 2,422 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,650
Jun 20261,650
May 20261,521
Apr 20261,540
Mar 20261,831
Feb 20261,971
Jan 20262,341
Dec 20252,030
Nov 20251,803
Oct 20251,900
Sept 20252,216
Aug 20251,867
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20252,011
May 20251,879
Apr 20251,670
Mar 20251,778
Feb 20252,185
Jan 20252,676
Dec 20243,009
Nov 20242,325
Oct 20242,318
Sept 20241,913
Aug 20242,003
Jul 20242,032
Jun 20241,759
May 20241,621
Apr 20241,900
Mar 20241,780
Feb 20241,849
Jan 20241,947
Dec 20231,867
Nov 20232,150
Oct 20231,953
Sept 20232,000
Aug 20231,883
Jul 20231,875
Jun 20231,936
May 20231,883
Apr 20231,903
Mar 20232,208
Feb 20231,844
Jan 20232,150
Dec 20222,000
Nov 20222,222
Oct 20221,706
Sept 20221,806
Aug 20221,658
May 20221,067
Apr 20221,067
Mar 20221,050
Feb 20221,067
Jan 20221,467
Oct 20211,133
Sept 20211,017
May 2021767
Apr 2021886
Mar 20211,020
Feb 20211,217
Jan 20211,027
Dec 20201,156
Nov 20201,125
Sept 20201,017
Aug 20201,025
Jul 2020977
Jun 2020896
Mar 2020900
Feb 20201,300
Jan 20201,667
Dec 20191,433
Oct 20191,200
Aug 20191,117
Jul 20191,117
Jun 2019800
May 2019783
Mar 2019967
Feb 2019983
Jan 20191,317
Dec 20181,167
Nov 2018960
Oct 20181,050
Sept 20181,080
Aug 20181,000
Jul 20181,133
Jun 20181,017
May 20181,000
Apr 2018950
Mar 20181,162
Feb 20181,500
Jan 20181,500
Dec 20171,520
Nov 20171,575
Oct 20171,488
Sept 20171,500
Aug 20171,438
Jul 20171,540
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,367
Apr 20171,600
Mar 20171,800
Feb 20171,600
Jan 20171,400
Dec 20161,375
Nov 20161,340
Oct 20161,150

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2441-76-retail-kg.