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Oil (vegetable) in Kigamba

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,160–17,817

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,123–18,625

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,160 and 17,817 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,123 and 18,625 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kigamba: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,160 and 17,817 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,123 and 18,625 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,855–17,327 15,489 13,195–18,242 17,229 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,667–17,778 15,349 12,815–19,615 17,287 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,160–17,817 14,767 12,352–20,360 16,386 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,909–17,874 14,689 12,502–18,220 16,323 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,123–18,625 15,452 12,198–19,067 17,983 –
Price history (94 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202614,000
Aug 202615,089
Jul 202617,000
Jun 202614,885
May 202615,961
Apr 202615,167
Mar 202613,676
Feb 202615,476
Jan 202615,216
Dec 202515,800
Nov 202515,260
Oct 202515,647
Sept 202518,062
Aug 202516,000
Jul 202515,667
Jun 202517,467
May 202516,971
Apr 202516,267
Mar 202515,216
Feb 202514,869
Jan 202514,706
Dec 202413,039
Nov 202413,625
Oct 202413,318
Sept 202412,467
Aug 202413,029
Jul 202411,562
Jun 20249,302
May 20249,715
Apr 20249,000
Mar 20249,078
Feb 20248,911
Jan 20249,233
Dec 20238,667
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20238,789
Sept 20239,781
Aug 20238,481
Jul 20239,000
Jun 20238,636
May 20238,583
Apr 20238,260
Mar 20238,613
Feb 20239,422
Jan 202311,000
Dec 20229,091
Nov 20228,735
Oct 202210,344
Sept 202210,750
Aug 202210,824
May 20228,344
Apr 20228,500
Mar 20227,958
Feb 20227,500
Jan 20227,750
Oct 20218,167
Sept 20217,125
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,263
Mar 20216,000
Feb 20216,000
Jan 20216,069
Dec 20205,611
Nov 20205,583
Sept 20205,583
Aug 20205,750
Jul 20205,434
Jun 20205,542
Mar 20205,380
Feb 20205,408
Jan 20204,917
Dec 20194,867
Nov 20195,075
Oct 20195,150
Sept 20195,242
Aug 20195,233
Jul 20195,380
Jun 20195,067
May 20194,825
Mar 20194,983
Feb 20194,467
Jan 20194,817
Dec 20185,000
Nov 20184,917
Oct 20184,875
Sept 20185,092
Aug 20185,490
Jul 20184,917
Jun 20185,250
May 20185,100
Apr 20185,062
Mar 20184,750
Feb 20185,800
Jan 20186,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2441-96-retail-kg.