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Food basket in Kigamba

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

25,987–38,095

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

25,627–39,873

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,119 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,987 and 38,095 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,627 and 39,873 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kigamba: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,119 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,987 and 38,095 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,627 and 39,873 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,928–33,238 30,357 25,018–35,202
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,648–34,338 30,169 25,141–39,549
Nov 2026
Next month		 25,987–38,095 30,405 23,941–47,825
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,877–38,444 30,502 24,018–48,569
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 25,627–39,873 31,221 23,451–45,872
Cost history (92 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 202626,700
Aug 202631,119
Jul 202625,800
Jun 202629,560
May 202630,795
Apr 202634,688
Mar 202629,947
Feb 202630,230
Jan 202631,864
Dec 202528,378
Nov 202532,929
Oct 202532,175
Sept 202536,268
Aug 202533,420
Jul 202533,980
Jun 202535,129
May 202532,174
Apr 202533,180
Mar 202533,920
Feb 202532,329
Jan 202533,313
Dec 202431,776
Nov 202432,980
Oct 202431,277
Sept 202432,136
Aug 202431,183
Jul 202429,614
Jun 202429,177
May 202430,189
Apr 202430,105
Mar 202430,437
Feb 202430,231
Jan 202428,438
Dec 202329,620
Nov 202329,602
Oct 202330,484
Sept 202330,032
Aug 202331,994
Jul 202329,973
Jun 202329,066
May 202329,240
Apr 202331,150
Mar 202330,703
Feb 202329,582
Jan 202324,442
Dec 202224,052
Nov 202223,373
Oct 202220,532
Sept 202219,458
Aug 202219,083
May 202218,162
Apr 202217,833
Mar 202217,480
Feb 202216,565
Jan 202217,125
Oct 202116,455
Sept 202115,682
May 202114,792
Apr 202114,686
Mar 202114,898
Feb 202115,115
Jan 202112,770
Dec 202012,495
Nov 202011,828
Sept 202012,684
Aug 202012,026
Jul 202012,200
Jun 202011,802
Mar 202011,591
Feb 202011,224
Jan 202011,195
Dec 201911,068
Oct 20199,930
Aug 201910,304
Jul 201910,516
Jun 20199,804
May 20199,534
Mar 201911,006
Feb 201910,382
Jan 201910,711
Dec 201810,711
Nov 201811,511
Oct 201810,022
Sept 201812,794
Aug 201812,691
Jul 201813,995
Jun 201814,350
May 201814,499
Apr 201814,738
Mar 201815,952
Feb 201817,335
Jan 201819,116

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620