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Oil (palm) in Kinama

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,096–10,607

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,880–11,495

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,096 and 10,607 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,880 and 11,495 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kinama: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,096 and 10,607 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,880 and 11,495 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,404); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,495–9,602 8,287 6,733–9,695 10,001 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,155–9,907 8,280 6,666–11,813 9,975 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,096–10,607 8,275 6,429–15,404 9,567 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,937–10,725 8,402 6,006–11,634 9,704 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,880–11,495 8,541 5,927–15,382 10,113 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20267,500
Aug 20268,402
Jun 20269,333
May 20268,863
Apr 20269,056
Mar 20269,344
Feb 20268,714
Jan 20269,250
Dec 20258,573
Nov 20257,844
Oct 20259,128
Sept 20259,625
Aug 202511,583
Jul 202511,000
Jun 202511,766
May 202511,510
Apr 202510,128
Mar 20259,312
Feb 20258,262
Jan 20256,760
Dec 20246,088
Nov 20245,792
Oct 20245,879
Sept 20245,761
Aug 20246,117
Jul 20245,944
Jun 20245,525
May 20246,000
Apr 20245,567
Mar 20245,284
Feb 20245,082
Jan 20245,241
Dec 20235,250
Nov 20235,267
Oct 20235,626
Sept 20235,544
Aug 20236,083
Jul 20236,292
Jun 20236,200
May 20235,792
Apr 20235,344
Mar 20235,447
Feb 20235,259
Jan 20235,200
Dec 20224,818
Nov 20224,986
Oct 20224,215
Sept 20224,552
Aug 20224,959
Jul 20225,725
May 20224,375
Apr 20223,500
Mar 20223,708
Feb 20223,400
Jan 20223,333
Oct 20213,625
Sept 20213,583
May 20212,733
Apr 20212,782
Mar 20212,644
Feb 20212,650
Jan 20212,367
Dec 20202,233
Nov 20202,150
Sept 20202,075
Aug 20202,208
Jul 20202,150
Jun 20202,433
Mar 20202,233
Feb 20202,483
Jan 20202,383
Dec 20192,217
Nov 20192,350
Oct 20192,092
Sept 20192,200
Aug 20192,167
Jul 20192,600
Jun 20192,767
May 20192,800
Mar 20192,100
Feb 20192,150
Jan 20191,783
Dec 20181,850
Nov 20181,817
Oct 20181,875
Sept 20182,283
Aug 20182,700
Jul 20182,420
Jun 20182,620
May 20182,300
Apr 20182,250
Mar 20182,000
Feb 20181,900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2442-62-retail-kg.