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Cassava flour in Kinama

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 0% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,153–1,775

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,197–2,038

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,153 and 1,775 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,197 and 2,038 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kinama: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,153 and 1,775 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,197 and 2,038 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,520); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,220–1,482 1,344 1,130–1,679 1,442 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,167–1,619 1,340 1,043–1,913 1,423 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,153–1,775 1,343 1,094–2,278 1,610 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,153–1,998 1,351 1,010–3,520 1,565 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,197–2,038 1,402 1,007–3,342 1,560 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,400
Aug 20261,328
Jun 20261,467
May 20261,587
Apr 20261,721
Mar 20261,555
Feb 20261,402
Jan 20261,357
Dec 20251,271
Nov 20251,157
Oct 20251,231
Sept 20251,225
Aug 20251,200
Jul 20251,292
Jun 20251,472
May 20251,422
Apr 20251,415
Mar 20251,142
Feb 20251,193
Jan 20251,117
Dec 20241,213
Nov 20241,377
Oct 20241,286
Sept 20241,221
Aug 20241,148
Jul 20241,158
Jun 20241,175
May 20241,444
Apr 20241,617
Mar 20241,663
Feb 20241,787
Jan 20241,762
Dec 20231,783
Nov 20231,717
Oct 20231,617
Sept 20231,638
Aug 20231,553
Jul 20231,558
Jun 20232,100
May 20231,917
Apr 20231,967
Mar 20232,038
Feb 20231,682
Jan 20231,550
Dec 20221,258
Nov 20221,227
Oct 20221,088
Sept 20221,007
Aug 20221,036
Jul 2022862
May 20221,167
Apr 20221,154
Mar 20221,033
Feb 20221,033
Jan 2022993
Oct 2021825
Sept 2021765
May 2021950
Apr 2021913
Mar 2021894
Feb 2021907
Jan 2021822
Dec 2020827
Nov 2020782
Sept 2020675
Aug 2020660
Jul 2020588
Jun 2020658
Mar 2020680
Feb 2020688
Jan 2020617
Dec 2019638
Oct 2019463
Aug 2019418
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019567
May 2019592
Mar 2019612
Feb 2019587
Jan 2019480
Dec 2018480
Nov 2018478
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018542
Aug 2018488
Jul 2018494
Jun 2018600
May 2018790
Apr 2018850
Mar 2018770
Feb 2018750
Dec 2017908
Nov 20171,008
Oct 2017975
Sept 20171,025
Aug 20171,000
Jul 20171,000
Jun 20171,112
May 20171,188
Apr 20171,175
Mar 20171,190
Feb 20171,217
Jan 20171,036
Dec 2016950
Nov 2016878
Oct 2016750

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2442-74-retail-kg.