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Maize flour in Kinama

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,807–2,764

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,755–3,196

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,807 and 2,764 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,755 and 3,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Kinama: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,807 and 2,764 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,755 and 3,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,960); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,774–2,170 1,931 1,628–2,816 2,345 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,782–2,429 2,014 1,626–3,400 2,610 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,807–2,764 2,011 1,626–5,302 2,680 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,792–2,987 2,072 1,680–6,846 2,799 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,755–3,196 2,096 1,638–7,960 2,823 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20262,000
Aug 20261,947
Jun 20261,733
May 20261,629
Apr 20261,767
Mar 20262,025
Feb 20262,248
Jan 20262,310
Dec 20252,204
Nov 20252,265
Oct 20252,367
Sept 20251,925
Aug 20251,908
Jul 20251,954
Jun 20251,842
May 20251,698
Apr 20251,892
Mar 20251,708
Feb 20252,179
Jan 20252,908
Dec 20243,018
Nov 20242,742
Oct 20242,464
Sept 20242,338
Aug 20242,060
Jul 20241,778
Jun 20241,625
May 20241,622
Apr 20241,600
Mar 20241,613
Feb 20241,750
Jan 20242,073
Dec 20232,200
Nov 20232,333
Oct 20232,200
Sept 20232,200
Aug 20232,183
Jul 20232,033
Jun 20232,033
May 20231,800
Apr 20231,852
Mar 20231,950
Feb 20231,891
Jan 20232,133
Dec 20222,300
Nov 20222,300
Oct 20222,094
Sept 20221,722
Aug 20221,788
Jul 20221,475
May 20221,175
Apr 20221,083
Mar 20221,200
Feb 20221,267
Jan 20221,267
Oct 20211,200
Sept 20211,167
May 2021883
Apr 2021932
Mar 2021972
Feb 20211,125
Jan 20211,117
Dec 20201,100
Nov 20201,000
Sept 2020975
Aug 2020917
Jul 2020875
Jun 2020883
Mar 2020825
Feb 2020833
Jan 20201,567
Dec 20191,300
Oct 20191,120
Aug 2019908
Jul 2019942
Jun 2019700
May 2019683
Mar 2019817
Feb 20191,083
Jan 20191,075
Dec 2018900
Nov 2018700
Oct 2018700
Sept 2018742
Aug 2018775
Jul 2018694
Jun 2018710
May 2018770
Apr 2018742
Mar 2018760
Feb 2018830
Dec 20171,033
Nov 20171,150
Oct 20171,300
Sept 20171,275
Aug 20171,250
Jul 20171,250
Jun 20171,325
May 20171,275
Apr 20171,225
Mar 20171,180
Feb 20171,333
Jan 20171,414
Dec 20161,375
Nov 20161,189
Oct 20161,106

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2442-76-retail-kg.