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Oil (vegetable) in Kinama

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,905–17,776

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,188–18,658

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,905 and 17,776 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,188 and 18,658 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kinama: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,905 and 17,776 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,188 and 18,658 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 24,003); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,747–15,941 14,156 11,802–16,584 16,463 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,642–17,091 14,665 12,001–18,134 17,770 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,905–17,776 14,449 11,306–21,296 17,008 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,531–18,700 14,302 11,410–24,003 16,830 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,188–18,658 14,337 11,347–21,890 17,127 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202614,000
Aug 202614,530
Jun 202614,333
May 202615,039
Apr 202614,694
Mar 202613,660
Feb 202614,000
Jan 202614,000
Dec 202514,583
Nov 202516,240
Oct 202517,872
Sept 202518,750
Aug 202517,083
Jul 202518,000
Jun 202514,833
May 202516,804
Apr 202516,535
Mar 202514,125
Feb 202514,500
Jan 202515,229
Dec 202411,853
Nov 202412,271
Oct 202412,727
Sept 202410,364
Aug 202410,767
Jul 202411,000
Jun 202410,792
May 20249,944
Apr 20249,333
Mar 20249,000
Feb 20248,818
Jan 20248,961
Dec 20239,333
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,000
Sept 20238,641
Aug 20238,833
Jul 20239,000
Jun 20239,000
May 20238,333
Apr 20238,500
Mar 20239,222
Feb 20239,522
Jan 20238,000
Dec 20229,485
Nov 202210,722
Oct 20229,490
Sept 20228,344
Aug 202210,375
Jul 20229,000
May 20229,333
Apr 20229,000
Mar 20228,583
Feb 20228,500
Jan 20228,500
Oct 20218,250
Sept 20218,500
May 20217,000
Apr 20216,171
Mar 20216,583
Feb 20215,875
Jan 20215,667
Dec 20205,694
Nov 20205,333
Sept 20205,167
Aug 20205,500
Jul 20205,417
Jun 20205,083
Mar 20205,333
Feb 20205,083
Jan 20205,500
Dec 20195,250
Nov 20195,083
Oct 20195,000
Sept 20195,083
Aug 20195,083
Jul 20195,250
Jun 20195,167
May 20195,333
Mar 20195,667
Feb 20195,000
Jan 20195,917
Dec 20186,000
Nov 20185,667
Oct 20185,875
Sept 20185,583
Aug 20185,375
Jul 20185,500
Jun 20184,500
May 20184,833
Apr 20183,300
Mar 20183,667
Feb 20184,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2442-96-retail-kg.