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Food basket in Kinama

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

25,223–35,803

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

25,131–40,551

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,542 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,223 and 35,803 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,131 and 40,551 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kinama: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,542 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,223 and 35,803 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,131 and 40,551 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 63,106); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 25,972–30,185 27,940 24,714–32,678
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 25,371–33,028 28,243 23,355–37,347
Nov 2026
Next month		 25,223–35,803 28,757 23,662–42,397
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,098–39,916 28,817 23,102–63,106
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 25,131–40,551 29,659 22,732–58,417
Cost history (91 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 202628,275
Aug 202627,542
Jun 202629,140
May 202633,915
Apr 202634,323
Mar 202631,057
Feb 202627,911
Jan 202627,473
Dec 202525,872
Nov 202523,730
Oct 202527,040
Sept 202526,606
Aug 202527,238
Jul 202527,958
Jun 202530,740
May 202529,705
Apr 202529,777
Mar 202525,833
Feb 202525,544
Jan 202523,897
Dec 202425,217
Nov 202426,439
Oct 202424,827
Sept 202423,793
Aug 202423,000
Jul 202422,242
Jun 202422,127
May 202426,083
Apr 202428,461
Mar 202428,316
Feb 202429,934
Jan 202428,875
Dec 202329,762
Nov 202329,514
Oct 202328,328
Sept 202328,591
Aug 202327,577
Jul 202327,601
Jun 202334,098
May 202331,886
Apr 202333,527
Mar 202334,339
Feb 202329,485
Jan 202327,288
Dec 202221,896
Nov 202221,645
Oct 202219,209
Sept 202218,093
Aug 202218,458
Jul 202216,753
May 202220,439
Apr 202219,070
Mar 202217,149
Feb 202216,786
Jan 202216,260
Oct 202114,831
Sept 202113,752
May 202115,626
Apr 202115,467
Mar 202115,133
Feb 202115,169
Jan 202113,578
Dec 202014,388
Nov 202013,864
Sept 202011,992
Aug 202011,754
Jul 202010,553
Jun 202011,694
Mar 202012,176
Feb 202012,283
Jan 202011,145
Dec 201911,319
Oct 20198,923
Aug 20198,150
Jul 20199,204
Jun 201910,329
May 201911,072
Mar 201910,679
Feb 201910,444
Jan 20199,030
Dec 20189,242
Nov 20189,033
Oct 20188,584
Sept 20189,951
Aug 20189,648
Jul 20189,290
Jun 201810,837
May 201813,263
Apr 201813,567
Mar 201812,168
Feb 201811,823

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620