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Oil (palm) in Kivyuka

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,462–9,787

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,317–10,742

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,462 and 9,787 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,317 and 10,742 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kivyuka: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,462 and 9,787 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,317 and 10,742 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 16,170); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,696–9,061 7,778 6,446–9,827 9,447 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,129–8,907 7,499 6,073–9,539 8,175 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,462–9,787 7,857 6,066–13,129 9,089 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,405–9,733 7,858 6,054–9,892 9,034 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,317–10,742 8,026 5,764–16,170 9,102 –
Price history (96 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20268,000
Aug 20267,431
Jul 20268,500
Jun 20268,292
May 20268,750
Apr 20268,417
Mar 20267,960
Feb 20268,628
Jan 20267,870
Dec 20258,069
Nov 20258,391
Oct 20257,947
Sept 202511,667
Aug 202511,667
Jul 202510,000
Jun 202510,489
May 202510,529
Apr 202510,292
Mar 20258,990
Feb 20258,589
Jan 20256,947
Dec 20246,318
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20245,375
Sept 20246,033
Aug 20246,222
Jul 20246,000
Jun 20245,917
May 20246,083
Apr 20245,667
Mar 20245,417
Feb 20245,583
Jan 20245,438
Dec 20235,333
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20235,917
Sept 20235,692
Aug 20236,158
Jul 20235,833
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,250
Apr 20235,639
Mar 20234,667
Feb 20234,525
Jan 20234,500
Dec 20224,670
Nov 20224,397
Oct 20224,500
Sept 20224,306
Aug 20224,750
Jul 20225,833
May 20225,375
Apr 20223,882
Mar 20223,819
Feb 20223,500
Jan 20223,300
Oct 20212,500
Sept 20213,500
May 20213,250
Apr 20212,995
Mar 20212,927
Feb 20213,050
Jan 20212,667
Dec 20202,433
Nov 20202,242
Oct 20202,300
Sept 20202,154
Aug 20202,500
Jul 20202,583
Jun 20202,606
Mar 20202,840
Feb 20202,300
Jan 20202,167
Dec 20192,300
Nov 20192,240
Oct 20192,167
Sept 20192,283
Aug 20192,667
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20192,625
Mar 20192,320
Feb 20192,140
Jan 20192,025
Dec 20182,250
Nov 20182,500
Oct 20181,820
Sept 20182,760
Aug 20183,417
Jul 20182,850
Jun 20182,950
May 20182,800
Apr 20182,750
Mar 20182,440
Feb 20181,967
Jan 20182,033

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2443-62-retail-kg.