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Cassava flour in Kivyuka

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,342–2,165

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,406–2,363

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 19% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,342 and 2,165 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,406 and 2,363 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kivyuka: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 19% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,342 and 2,165 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,406 and 2,363 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,232); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,445–1,820 1,632 1,360–1,969 1,665 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,400–1,988 1,641 1,189–2,227 1,716 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,342–2,165 1,618 1,190–2,835 1,936 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,327–2,300 1,603 1,190–3,232 1,857 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,406–2,363 1,665 1,233–2,931 1,864 –
Price history (109 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,800
Aug 20261,634
Jul 20261,500
Jun 20261,682
May 20262,025
Apr 20261,983
Mar 20261,644
Feb 20261,549
Jan 20261,552
Dec 20251,658
Nov 20251,541
Oct 20251,355
Sept 20251,350
Aug 20251,375
Jul 20251,550
Jun 20251,796
May 20251,637
Apr 20251,588
Mar 20251,512
Feb 20251,557
Jan 20251,466
Dec 20241,649
Nov 20241,642
Oct 20241,483
Sept 20241,440
Aug 20241,282
Jul 20241,229
Jun 20241,367
May 20241,592
Apr 20241,733
Mar 20241,900
Feb 20242,033
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20231,950
Oct 20231,882
Sept 20231,862
Aug 20231,792
Jul 20231,850
Jun 20231,950
May 20232,100
Apr 20232,200
Mar 20232,167
Feb 20231,700
Jan 20231,700
Dec 20221,380
Nov 20221,313
Oct 20221,185
Sept 20221,093
Aug 20221,125
Jul 2022967
May 20221,200
Apr 20221,159
Mar 20221,161
Feb 20221,100
Jan 20221,050
Oct 2021875
Sept 2021850
May 20211,050
Apr 20211,001
Mar 2021915
Feb 2021862
Jan 2021867
Dec 2020792
Nov 2020825
Oct 20201,150
Sept 2020727
Aug 2020725
Jul 2020637
Jun 2020661
Mar 2020720
Feb 2020690
Jan 2020583
Dec 2019608
Oct 2019475
Aug 2019475
Jul 2019467
Jun 2019500
May 2019550
Mar 2019560
Feb 2019520
Jan 2019525
Dec 2018475
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018512
Jun 2018700
May 2018840
Apr 2018842
Mar 2018830
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018900
Dec 2017975
Nov 20171,050
Oct 20171,012
Sept 20171,067
Aug 20171,150
Jul 20171,067
Jun 20171,183
May 20171,383
Apr 20171,475
Mar 20171,288
Feb 20171,217
Jan 20171,050
Dec 20161,036
Nov 2016943
Oct 2016820

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2443-74-retail-kg.