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Food basket in Kivyuka

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,559–39,940

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,477–44,030

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,559 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,559 and 39,940 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,477 and 44,030 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kivyuka: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,559 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,559 and 39,940 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,477 and 44,030 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 60,999); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 28,657–34,371 31,251 27,401–36,827
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 27,571–36,526 31,480 25,355–41,217
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,559–39,940 32,067 25,435–47,306
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,121–43,151 31,769 25,061–60,999
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,477–44,030 32,259 25,077–54,812
Cost history (94 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 202632,520
Aug 202630,559
Jul 202629,400
Jun 202632,353
May 202640,313
Apr 202638,067
Mar 202631,286
Feb 202630,395
Jan 202628,833
Dec 202531,209
Nov 202530,228
Oct 202527,810
Sept 202530,160
Aug 202529,950
Jul 202530,900
Jun 202534,100
May 202532,602
Apr 202532,965
Mar 202531,047
Feb 202530,597
Jan 202527,854
Dec 202431,491
Nov 202430,390
Oct 202427,884
Sept 202427,795
Aug 202425,049
Jul 202424,097
Jun 202425,253
May 202428,668
Apr 202430,170
Mar 202432,038
Feb 202433,562
Jan 202431,959
Dec 202332,720
Nov 202332,760
Oct 202332,122
Sept 202331,731
Aug 202331,149
Jul 202330,935
Jun 202332,040
May 202334,822
Apr 202337,161
Mar 202335,960
Feb 202329,372
Jan 202328,905
Dec 202223,893
Nov 202223,016
Oct 202220,851
Sept 202219,548
Aug 202219,537
Jul 202218,295
May 202222,339
Apr 202219,983
Mar 202219,239
Feb 202218,135
Jan 202216,677
Oct 202114,565
Sept 202114,925
May 202117,632
Apr 202116,879
Mar 202115,901
Feb 202115,244
Jan 202114,310
Dec 202013,834
Nov 202014,552
Oct 202018,537
Sept 202013,073
Aug 202013,080
Jul 202011,841
Jun 202012,148
Mar 202013,264
Feb 202012,135
Jan 202010,535
Dec 201911,047
Oct 20199,475
Aug 20199,760
Jul 20199,950
Jun 20199,870
May 201910,796
Mar 201910,661
Feb 20199,787
Jan 20199,857
Dec 20189,368
Nov 20189,818
Oct 20189,470
Sept 20189,992
Aug 201810,368
Jul 201810,232
Jun 201812,506
May 201814,208
Apr 201814,173
Mar 201813,732
Feb 201812,937
Jan 201813,853

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620