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Oil (palm) in Mabanda

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,434–10,500

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,484–11,188

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,434 and 10,500 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,484 and 11,188 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mabanda: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,434 and 10,500 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,484 and 11,188 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,452–9,767 8,345 6,829–10,482 9,082 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,452–10,049 8,397 6,861–11,220 9,315 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,434–10,500 8,455 6,792–13,033 9,514 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,484–10,548 8,470 6,608–11,152 9,304 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,484–11,188 8,912 6,210–12,953 10,258 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jul 20269,000
Jun 20269,250
May 202610,056
Apr 20269,000
Mar 20268,625
Feb 20269,524
Jan 202610,029
Dec 20258,000
Nov 20257,875
Oct 20259,278
Sept 20259,019
Aug 202511,500
Jul 202510,000
Jun 202510,122
May 20259,500
Apr 20259,333
Mar 20259,875
Feb 20258,969
Jan 20257,808
Dec 20245,738
Nov 20246,250
Oct 20245,444
Sept 20244,688
Aug 20246,000
Jul 20246,233
Jun 20246,256
May 20245,298
Apr 20245,000
Mar 20245,407
Feb 20245,385
Jan 20245,622
Dec 20235,150
Nov 20235,250
Oct 20235,527
Sept 20236,380
Aug 20236,500
Jul 20236,708
Jun 20236,343
May 20236,200
Apr 20234,975
Mar 20234,947
Feb 20234,607
Dec 20224,270
Nov 20224,141
Oct 20224,046
Sept 20224,217
Aug 20224,747
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,615
Apr 20224,233
Mar 20223,783
Feb 20223,400
Jan 20223,750
Oct 20213,167
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,834
Mar 20212,702
Feb 20212,317
Jan 20212,367
Dec 20202,300
Nov 20204,050Data error
Oct 20202,127
Sept 20202,075
Aug 20202,267
Jul 20202,444
Jun 20202,361
Mar 20202,340
Feb 20202,550
Jan 20202,000
Dec 20192,360
Nov 20192,133
Oct 20192,083
Sept 20192,150
Aug 20192,860
Jul 20192,825
Jun 20193,333
May 20192,720
Mar 20192,460
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,120
Dec 20182,040
Nov 20182,033
Oct 20182,400
Sept 20181,860
Aug 20182,800
Jul 20183,200
Jun 20183,033
May 20182,533
Apr 20182,214
Mar 20181,420
Feb 20181,100
Jan 20181,800

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2444-62-retail-kg.