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Cassava flour in Mabanda

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,215–2,053

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,261–2,412

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,215 and 2,053 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,261 and 2,412 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mabanda: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,215 and 2,053 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,261 and 2,412 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,918); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,291–1,698 1,498 1,208–1,859 1,708 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,267–1,838 1,503 1,104–2,143 1,674 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,215–2,053 1,494 1,112–3,055 1,862 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,178–2,125 1,487 1,082–3,206 1,766 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,261–2,412 1,528 1,105–3,918 1,887 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,533
Jul 20261,300
Jun 20261,400
May 20261,444
Apr 20261,200
Mar 20261,588
Feb 20261,643
Jan 20261,549
Dec 20251,076
Nov 20251,175
Oct 20251,436
Sept 20251,494
Aug 20251,600
Jul 20251,633
Jun 20251,630
May 20251,595
Apr 20251,467
Mar 20251,625
Feb 20251,541
Jan 20251,753
Dec 20241,846
Nov 20241,794
Oct 20241,525
Sept 20241,327
Aug 20241,375
Jul 20241,200
Jun 20241,520
May 20241,527
Apr 20241,700
Mar 20241,749
Feb 20241,800
Jan 20241,777
Dec 20231,825
Nov 20231,800
Oct 20231,787
Sept 20231,781
Aug 20231,667
Jul 20231,850
Jun 20231,863
May 20231,850
Apr 20231,850
Mar 20232,026
Feb 20231,725
Dec 20221,442
Nov 20221,400
Oct 20221,127
Sept 20221,129
Aug 20221,090
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,060
Apr 20221,100
Mar 20221,150
Feb 20221,100
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021967
May 20211,000
Apr 2021844
Mar 2021842
Feb 2021850
Jan 2021825
Dec 2020750
Nov 2020725
Oct 2020668
Sept 2020681
Aug 2020600
Jul 2020574
Jun 2020607
Mar 2020620
Feb 2020592
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019580
Oct 2019492
Aug 2019520
Jul 2019488
Jun 2019500
May 2019520
Mar 2019540
Feb 2019492
Jan 20191,540Data error
Dec 2018560
Nov 2018567
Oct 2018550
Sept 2018510
Aug 2018575
Jul 2018633
Jun 2018617
May 2018800
Apr 2018836
Mar 2018980
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018900
Dec 2017910
Nov 2017950
Oct 20171,033
Sept 20171,020
Aug 20171,300
Jul 2017900
Jun 2017900
May 2017867
Apr 20171,000
Mar 2017900
Feb 2017800
Jan 2017892
Dec 2016833
Nov 2016831
Oct 2016750

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2444-74-retail-kg.