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Maize flour in Mabanda

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,820–2,481

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,780–2,687

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,820 and 2,481 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,780 and 2,687 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mabanda: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,820 and 2,481 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,780 and 2,687 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,921); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,772–2,132 1,941 1,607–2,297 2,397 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,730–2,298 1,987 1,526–2,443 2,484 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,820–2,481 2,048 1,556–3,052 2,753 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,830–2,653 2,116 1,483–3,921 2,873 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,780–2,687 2,079 1,434–3,760 2,766 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,922
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20261,867
May 20261,772
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20262,108
Feb 20262,167
Jan 20262,198
Dec 20252,159
Nov 20252,200
Oct 20251,965
Sept 20251,981
Aug 20251,900
Jul 20251,867
Jun 20251,896
May 20251,775
Apr 20251,783
Mar 20251,838
Feb 20253,019
Jan 20253,024
Dec 20242,925
Nov 20242,619
Oct 20242,262
Sept 20242,183
Aug 20241,933
Jul 20241,677
Jun 20241,754
May 20241,692
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,837
Feb 20241,903
Jan 20242,062
Dec 20232,100
Nov 20232,100
Oct 20232,057
Sept 20232,176
Aug 20232,017
Jul 20231,933
Jun 20231,863
May 20231,745
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20232,397
Feb 20232,317
Dec 20222,309
Nov 20222,582
Oct 20221,962
Sept 20221,761
Aug 20221,576
Jun 20221,300
May 20221,257
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,333
Feb 20221,433
Jan 20221,425
Oct 20211,233
May 20211,000
Apr 2021888
Mar 2021944
Feb 20211,150
Jan 20211,200
Dec 20201,200
Nov 20201,100
Oct 20201,082
Sept 20201,072
Aug 2020983
Jul 2020926
Jun 2020891
Mar 2020920
Feb 20201,267
Jan 20201,600
Dec 20191,420
Oct 20191,183
Aug 2019920
Jul 20191,075
Jun 2019667
May 2019640
Mar 2019780
Feb 2019858
Jan 2019940
Dec 2018930
Nov 2018817
Oct 2018750
Sept 2018710
Aug 2018725
Jul 2018767
Jun 2018717
May 2018867
Apr 2018771
Mar 2018860
Feb 2018800
Jan 20181,000
Dec 20171,120
Nov 20171,125
Oct 20171,133
Sept 20171,140
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,100
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,100
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,292
Dec 20161,311
Nov 20161,162
Oct 20161,175

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2444-76-retail-kg.