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Oil (vegetable) in Mabanda

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,374–18,783

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,974–19,069

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,374 and 18,783 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,974 and 19,069 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mabanda: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,374 and 18,783 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,974 and 19,069 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 25,248); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,569–17,196 15,095 12,990–18,802 17,374 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,087–17,922 15,337 12,714–21,131 17,591 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,374–18,783 15,348 12,378–25,248 17,663 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,261–18,858 15,382 11,945–21,504 17,777 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,974–19,069 15,524 11,867–20,508 18,764 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,667
Jul 202617,000
Jun 202615,000
May 202614,389
Apr 202619,000
Mar 202617,292
Feb 202616,429
Jan 202616,451
Dec 202515,412
Nov 202515,750
Oct 202517,861
Sept 202517,926
Aug 202518,000
Jul 202518,333
Jun 202518,467
May 202518,000
Apr 202517,000
Mar 202515,000
Feb 202515,312
Jan 202513,372
Dec 202413,292
Nov 202412,375
Oct 202411,903
Sept 202410,750
Aug 202412,979
Jul 202412,467
Jun 202410,797
May 202411,538
Apr 20249,750
Mar 20249,696
Feb 20249,295
Jan 20249,912
Dec 202310,000
Nov 202310,000
Oct 20239,350
Sept 20239,778
Aug 202310,000
Jul 202310,333
Jun 20239,926
May 20239,550
Apr 20239,688
Mar 20238,887
Feb 20239,942
Dec 202210,045
Nov 202210,382
Oct 20229,458
Sept 20229,938
Aug 202210,971
Jun 20229,000
May 20228,757
Apr 20229,000
Mar 20228,250
Feb 20228,833
Jan 20229,000
Oct 20218,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,672
Mar 20215,854
Feb 20215,667
Jan 20214,792
Dec 20204,750
Nov 20205,375
Oct 20205,091
Sept 20205,016
Aug 20205,167
Jul 20205,294
Jun 20205,239
Mar 20205,800
Feb 20205,083
Jan 20205,250
Dec 20195,200
Nov 20194,833
Oct 20194,833
Sept 20194,875
Aug 20194,400
Jul 20195,250
Jun 20194,667
May 20194,800
Mar 20195,000
Feb 20194,917
Jan 20195,100
Dec 20185,500
Nov 20185,083
Oct 20185,250
Sept 20185,200
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20185,000
Jun 20185,167
May 20185,083
Apr 20184,714
Mar 20184,700
Feb 20185,000
Jan 20185,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2444-96-retail-kg.