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Food basket in Mabanda

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

25,790–38,789

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

25,984–46,623

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,530 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,790 and 38,789 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,984 and 46,623 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mabanda: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,530 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,790 and 38,789 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,984 and 46,623 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 71,783); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,336–32,349 29,125 25,237–34,736
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,041–34,797 29,517 24,099–40,013
Nov 2026
Next month		 25,790–38,789 30,130 24,306–49,450
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,150–39,339 29,965 23,641–58,049
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 25,984–46,623 30,788 23,607–71,783
Cost history (88 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202629,530
Jul 202626,310
Jun 202627,623
May 202631,972
Apr 202628,710
Mar 202630,559
Feb 202631,523
Jan 202630,503
Dec 202522,938
Nov 202524,664
Oct 202528,650
Sept 202528,763
Aug 202532,085
Jul 202530,580
Jun 202530,540
May 202530,195
Apr 202529,800
Mar 202532,749
Feb 202530,470
Jan 202532,844
Dec 202432,206
Nov 202431,699
Oct 202428,064
Sept 202424,301
Aug 202425,301
Jul 202422,841
Jun 202426,572
May 202427,306
Apr 202429,880
Mar 202431,218
Feb 202430,808
Jan 202429,918
Dec 202330,494
Nov 202330,442
Oct 202330,095
Sept 202330,206
Aug 202328,895
Jul 202330,534
Jun 202330,285
May 202332,157
Apr 202331,798
Mar 202333,744
Feb 202329,056
Dec 202224,613
Nov 202223,829
Oct 202219,508
Sept 202219,333
Aug 202218,927
Jun 202220,205
May 202219,109
Apr 202219,241
Mar 202218,540
Feb 202217,706
Jan 202216,928
Oct 202116,185
May 202116,320
Apr 202114,679
Mar 202114,901
Feb 202114,408
Jan 202114,353
Dec 202013,467
Oct 202012,301
Sept 202012,352
Aug 202011,014
Jul 202010,583
Jun 202010,703
Mar 202011,719
Feb 202011,080
Jan 202010,740
Dec 201910,640
Oct 20199,438
Aug 20199,725
Jul 20199,644
Jun 20199,440
May 201910,061
Mar 201910,373
Feb 20199,248
Dec 201810,324
Nov 201810,123
Oct 201810,146
Sept 20189,203
Aug 201810,452
Jul 201811,233
Jun 201810,888
May 201812,998
Apr 201813,331
Mar 201814,450
Jan 201813,662

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620