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Oil (palm) in Mabayi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,078–10,879

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,976–11,447

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,078 and 10,879 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,976 and 11,447 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mabayi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,078 and 10,879 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,976 and 11,447 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,705–10,613 9,359 8,055–10,869 10,808 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,287–10,346 9,061 7,393–12,341 9,741 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,078–10,879 8,868 7,346–13,304 9,621 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,063–11,070 8,879 7,013–13,578 9,722 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,976–11,447 9,061 7,251–14,190 9,990 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,833
Jul 20269,000
Jun 20269,510
May 20269,618
Apr 20269,167
Mar 20268,844
Feb 20269,607
Jan 202610,275
Dec 20259,980
Nov 202510,125
Oct 202510,917
Sept 202510,478
Aug 202510,600
Jul 20259,451
Jun 202510,677
May 20259,392
Apr 20259,717
Mar 20259,039
Feb 20258,786
Jan 20256,951
Dec 20246,333
Nov 20245,945
Oct 20246,155
Sept 20247,433
Aug 20246,679
Jul 20246,167
Jun 20246,604
May 20245,755
Apr 20245,181
Mar 20245,467
Feb 20245,170
Jan 20245,861
Dec 20235,367
Nov 20235,833
Oct 20235,821
Sept 20235,988
Aug 20236,029
Jul 20235,267
Jun 20236,155
May 20235,577
Apr 20235,356
Mar 20234,833
Feb 20234,500
Jan 20234,300
Dec 20224,191
Nov 20224,039
Oct 20224,168
Sept 20224,377
Aug 20225,024
May 20224,688
Apr 20223,967
Mar 20223,933
Feb 20223,767
Jan 20223,433
Sept 20214,675
May 20213,189
Apr 20212,788
Mar 20212,721
Feb 20212,483
Jan 20212,401
Dec 20202,356
Nov 20202,450
Oct 20202,200
Sept 20202,273
Aug 20202,350
Jul 20202,388
Jun 20202,447
Mar 20202,433
Feb 20202,433
Jan 20202,167
Dec 20192,283
Nov 20192,333
Oct 20192,383
Sept 20192,517
Aug 20192,733
Jul 20192,550
Jun 20192,767
May 20192,300
Mar 20192,183
Feb 20192,460
Jan 20192,250
Dec 20182,425
Nov 20182,125
Oct 20182,200
Sept 20182,883
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20182,817
Apr 20182,700
Mar 20182,380
Feb 20182,000
Jan 20181,975

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2445-62-retail-kg.