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Maize (white) in Mabayi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,956–3,015

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,673–2,806

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,956 and 3,015 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,673 and 2,806 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Mabayi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,956 and 3,015 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,673 and 2,806 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,868); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,899–2,609 2,242 1,709–2,825 2,356 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,947–2,862 2,362 1,672–3,036 2,615 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,956–3,015 2,346 1,657–3,631 2,699 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,847–3,010 2,224 1,551–3,868 2,381 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,673–2,806 2,120 1,345–3,467 2,112 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,200
Jul 20262,500
Jun 20262,179
May 20262,322
Apr 20262,342
Mar 20261,700
Feb 20262,190
Jan 20262,380
Dec 20252,149
Nov 20252,152
Oct 20252,333
Sept 20252,180
Aug 20251,930
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20252,029
May 20252,000
Apr 20251,771
Mar 20251,963
Feb 20251,895
Jan 20252,443
Dec 20242,617
Nov 20242,510
Oct 20242,777
Sept 20242,230
Aug 20241,618
Jul 20241,767
Jun 20241,462
May 20241,355
Apr 20241,607
Mar 20241,751
Feb 20241,855
Jan 20241,983
Dec 20232,100
Nov 20232,233
Oct 20232,021
Sept 20231,994
Aug 20231,675
Jul 20231,773
Jun 20231,685
May 20231,833
Apr 20231,927
Mar 20231,956
Feb 20231,772
Dec 20222,000
Nov 20221,725
Oct 20221,915
Sept 20221,575
Aug 20221,410
May 20221,423
Apr 20221,400
Mar 2022950
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Sept 20211,300
May 2021873
Apr 2021921
Mar 2021941
Feb 2021850
Jan 20211,030
Dec 20201,100
Nov 20201,083
Oct 20201,100
Sept 20201,348
Aug 20201,219
Jul 20201,000
Jun 2020850
Mar 20201,000
Feb 20201,333
Jan 20201,133
Dec 20191,117
Oct 20191,250
Aug 2019975
Jul 20191,350
Jun 20191,000
May 20191,133
Mar 20191,000
Feb 2019830
Jan 2019925
Dec 20181,000
Nov 20181,000
Oct 2018980
Sept 2018883
Aug 2018790
Jul 2018880
Jun 2018690
May 2018625
Apr 2018625
Mar 2018630
Feb 2018700
Jan 20181,138
Dec 20171,380
Nov 20172,000
Oct 20171,900
Sept 20171,833
Aug 20172,000
Jul 20171,180
Jun 20171,800
May 20171,833
Apr 20171,800
Mar 20171,700
Feb 20171,500
Dec 2016500Data error
Nov 20161,900
Oct 20161,533

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2445-67-retail-kg.