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Cassava flour in Mabayi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,438–2,197

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,449–2,445

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,438 and 2,197 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,449 and 2,445 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mabayi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,438 and 2,197 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,449 and 2,445 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,059); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,480–1,870 1,679 1,376–2,095 1,646 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,464–1,951 1,690 1,276–2,478 1,662 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,438–2,197 1,648 1,239–3,017 1,911 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,377–2,355 1,624 1,240–4,059 1,818 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,449–2,445 1,678 1,246–3,205 1,839 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,717
Jul 20261,500
Jun 20261,908
May 20262,000
Apr 20262,017
Mar 20261,788
Feb 20261,838
Jan 20261,714
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,500
Oct 20251,544
Sept 20251,561
Aug 20251,570
Jul 20251,582
Jun 20251,804
May 20251,722
Apr 20251,674
Mar 20251,512
Feb 20251,507
Jan 20251,480
Dec 20241,500
Nov 20241,500
Oct 20241,479
Sept 20241,493
Aug 20241,346
Jul 20241,383
Jun 20241,494
May 20241,831
Apr 20241,948
Mar 20242,000
Feb 20242,000
Jan 20241,833
Dec 20232,067
Nov 20231,917
Oct 20231,796
Sept 20231,694
Aug 20231,557
Jul 20231,686
Jun 20231,964
May 20231,996
Apr 20231,988
Mar 20231,923
Feb 20231,611
Jan 20231,700
Dec 20221,300
Nov 20221,417
Oct 20221,193
Sept 20221,138
Aug 20221,024
May 20221,258
Apr 20221,183
Mar 20221,117
Feb 20221,100
Jan 20221,100
Sept 2021900
May 20211,215
Apr 20211,003
Mar 2021964
Feb 2021964
Jan 2021887
Dec 2020856
Nov 2020925
Oct 2020650
Sept 2020694
Aug 2020683
Jul 2020631
Jun 2020685
Mar 2020775
Feb 2020708
Jan 2020717
Dec 2019667
Oct 2019567
Aug 2019517
Jul 2019600
Jun 2019567
May 2019650
Mar 2019642
Feb 2019620
Jan 2019612
Dec 2018600
Nov 2018538
Oct 2018642
Sept 2018533
Aug 2018775
Jul 2018850
Jun 2018900
May 20181,067
Apr 20181,000
Mar 2018870
Feb 2018900
Jan 2018938
Dec 20171,143
Nov 20171,150
Oct 20171,133
Sept 20171,200
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,169
Jun 20171,233
May 20171,390
Apr 20171,283
Mar 20171,225
Feb 20171,133
Jan 20171,014
Dec 20161,044
Nov 20161,083
Oct 2016840

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2445-74-retail-kg.