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Maize flour in Mabayi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 13% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,569–4,792

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,355–4,836

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

14%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,569 and 4,792 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,355 and 4,836 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 14%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mabayi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,569 and 4,792 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,355 and 4,836 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 14%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,628); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,478–3,772 3,089 2,066–4,121 2,702 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,527–4,408 3,160 1,954–7,112 3,169 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,569–4,792 3,156 1,953–7,628 3,329 14%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,456–4,821 3,036 1,909–7,597 3,124 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,355–4,836 2,949 1,799–7,518 3,103 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20263,000
Jul 20264,500
Jun 20263,224
May 20263,340
Apr 20263,792
Mar 20262,190
Feb 20262,729
Jan 20262,859
Dec 20252,667
Nov 20253,049
Oct 20253,021
Sept 20253,228
Aug 20252,692
Jul 20252,984
Jun 20252,581
May 20252,878
Apr 20252,782
Mar 20252,851
Feb 20252,464
Jan 20253,431
Dec 20243,603
Nov 20243,162
Oct 20242,858
Sept 20242,220
Aug 20242,087
Jul 20242,242
Jun 20241,905
May 20241,863
Apr 20242,104
Mar 20242,092
Feb 20242,176
Jan 20242,783
Dec 20232,500
Nov 20232,467
Oct 20232,488
Sept 20232,328
Aug 20232,067
Jul 20232,007
Jun 20232,042
May 20232,124
Apr 20232,388
Mar 20232,770
Feb 20233,007
Jan 20233,200
Dec 20222,894
Nov 20222,711
Oct 20222,122
Sept 20221,881
Aug 20221,418
May 20221,684
Apr 20221,467
Mar 20221,650
Feb 20221,500
Jan 20221,500
Sept 20211,100
May 20212,033
Apr 20211,500
Mar 20211,300
Feb 20211,950
Jan 20212,025
Dec 20202,109
Nov 20202,000
Oct 20202,100
Sept 20201,604
Aug 20201,750
Jul 20201,768
Jun 20201,617
Mar 20201,800
Feb 20201,867
Jan 20201,833
Dec 20191,550
Oct 20191,780
Aug 20191,533
Jul 20191,620
Jun 20191,400
May 20191,580
Mar 20191,367
Feb 20191,250
Jan 20191,300
Dec 20181,300
Nov 20181,233
Oct 20181,183
Sept 20181,267
Aug 20181,317
Jul 20181,300
Jun 20181,150
May 20181,100
Apr 20181,067
Mar 20181,260
Feb 20181,250
Jan 20181,162
Dec 20171,414
Nov 20172,500
Oct 20172,500
Sept 20172,500
Aug 20172,000
Jul 20172,114
Jun 20172,250
May 20172,250
Apr 20172,167
Mar 20172,500
Feb 20172,233
Jan 20172,000
Dec 20161,743
Nov 20161,625
Oct 20161,640

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2445-76-retail-kg.