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Oil (vegetable) in Mabayi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,190–17,922

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,033–19,146

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,190 and 17,922 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,033 and 19,146 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mabayi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,190 and 17,922 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,033 and 19,146 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,543–17,020 14,776 12,896–17,639 17,293 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,052–17,124 14,606 12,665–20,286 16,933 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,190–17,922 14,649 11,651–20,467 17,264 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,063–18,578 14,583 11,669–23,834 17,244 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,033–19,146 15,031 11,725–20,929 18,776 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,667
Jul 202614,000
Jun 202614,146
May 202614,902
Apr 202615,500
Mar 202614,456
Feb 202615,000
Jan 202614,451
Dec 202515,490
Nov 202517,135
Oct 202516,944
Sept 202516,304
Aug 202517,933
Jul 202518,471
Jun 202517,729
May 202517,667
Apr 202518,522
Mar 202519,941
Feb 202516,143
Jan 202516,314
Dec 202413,867
Nov 202411,479
Oct 202412,848
Sept 202411,773
Aug 202412,764
Jul 202411,979
Jun 202410,969
May 20249,529
Apr 20249,037
Mar 20248,990
Feb 20249,333
Jan 202410,833
Dec 20239,333
Nov 202310,333
Oct 20239,167
Sept 20239,859
Aug 20239,598
Jul 20238,989
Jun 20239,976
May 20239,576
Apr 202310,090
Mar 202310,102
Feb 20239,156
Jan 202310,500
Dec 20229,212
Nov 20229,630
Oct 20228,984
Sept 20229,375
Aug 20229,059
May 20229,112
Apr 20229,133
Mar 20228,833
Feb 20228,667
Jan 20228,000
Sept 20218,050
May 20216,156
Apr 20215,854
Mar 20216,729
Feb 20216,083
Jan 20215,912
Dec 20205,659
Nov 20205,250
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,583
Aug 20205,734
Jul 20205,208
Jun 20205,156
Mar 20204,967
Feb 20205,167
Jan 20204,667
Dec 20194,667
Nov 20194,567
Oct 20194,867
Sept 20194,833
Aug 20195,150
Jul 20194,983
Jun 20195,167
May 20194,780
Mar 20194,733
Feb 20195,200
Jan 20194,750
Dec 20185,250
Nov 20185,500
Oct 20185,167
Sept 20185,083
Aug 20185,333
Jul 20185,333
Jun 20185,500
May 20184,417
Apr 20184,767
Mar 20184,900
Feb 20184,750
Jan 20185,625

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2445-96-retail-kg.