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Food basket in Mabayi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

29,868–42,628

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

29,555–48,787

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 33,535 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 29,868 and 42,628 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 29,555 and 48,787 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mabayi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 33,535 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 29,868 and 42,628 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 29,555 and 48,787 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 70,542); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 30,779–37,114 33,621 29,541–40,477
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 30,058–39,924 33,667 27,905–49,341
Nov 2026
Next month		 29,868–42,628 34,180 27,834–50,603
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 29,309–45,681 34,047 27,503–64,464
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 29,555–48,787 34,721 27,264–70,542
Cost history (91 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202633,535
Jul 202633,210
Jun 202636,310
May 202640,681
Apr 202640,575
Mar 202633,638
Feb 202634,455
Jan 202633,555
Dec 202530,971
Nov 202531,221
Oct 202532,420
Sept 202531,693
Aug 202531,470
Jul 202531,146
Jun 202534,907
May 202534,174
Apr 202533,959
Mar 202531,123
Feb 202530,264
Jan 202529,955
Dec 202430,284
Nov 202428,991
Oct 202427,910
Sept 202429,229
Aug 202426,393
Jul 202426,262
Jun 202427,713
May 202431,432
Apr 202432,680
Mar 202432,717
Feb 202431,819
Jan 202431,564
Dec 202334,983
Nov 202332,305
Oct 202331,604
Sept 202329,969
Aug 202327,477
Jul 202328,255
Jun 202333,129
May 202333,415
Apr 202334,573
Mar 202332,785
Feb 202327,038
Jan 202327,867
Dec 202222,779
Nov 202223,670
Oct 202220,610
Sept 202219,895
Aug 202218,427
May 202221,716
Apr 202219,697
Mar 202218,244
Feb 202217,839
Jan 202217,549
Sept 202116,231
May 202119,065
Apr 202116,998
Mar 202116,402
Feb 202115,820
Jan 202114,635
Dec 202015,130
Nov 202015,986
Oct 202012,198
Sept 202012,721
Aug 202012,414
Jul 202011,510
Jun 202012,021
Mar 202013,319
Feb 202012,354
Jan 202012,195
Dec 201911,676
Oct 201910,665
Aug 20199,916
Jul 201911,089
Jun 201910,989
May 201911,871
Mar 201911,277
Feb 201910,937
Jan 201910,972
Dec 201810,943
Nov 201810,031
Oct 201811,168
Sept 201810,129
Aug 201813,020
Jul 201814,010
Jun 201814,688
May 201816,754
Apr 201815,643
Mar 201814,026
Feb 201813,935
Jan 201814,570

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620