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Oil (palm) in Marangara

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,870–10,365

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,702–10,767

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,870 and 10,365 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,702 and 10,767 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Marangara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,870 and 10,365 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,702 and 10,767 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,220–10,415 9,154 7,794–10,721 10,853 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,907–10,304 9,036 7,227–10,597 10,108 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,870–10,365 9,118 7,490–10,529 10,056 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,796–10,766 9,152 7,203–12,762 10,046 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,702–10,767 9,307 6,711–11,326 10,227 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jul 202610,000
Jun 20269,781
May 202610,667
Apr 202610,500
Mar 202610,000
Feb 202610,000
Jan 20269,000
Dec 202510,000
Nov 202510,783
Oct 202511,646
Sept 202511,761
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,462
Jun 202512,000
May 202511,710
Apr 202510,771
Mar 20258,969
Feb 20257,056
Jan 20256,854
Dec 20246,700
Nov 20246,152
Oct 20246,250
Sept 20246,756
Aug 20246,880
Jul 20246,650
Jun 20246,792
May 20246,050
Apr 20246,125
Mar 20246,125
Feb 20245,733
Jan 20245,867
Dec 20235,650
Nov 20236,069
Oct 20236,135
Sept 20236,107
Aug 20236,117
Jul 20235,717
Jun 20236,150
May 20235,175
Apr 20235,122
Mar 20234,668
Feb 20234,673
Jan 20234,500
Dec 20224,333
Nov 20224,082
Oct 20223,953
Sept 20224,538
Aug 20225,000
May 20225,052
Apr 20224,115
Mar 20223,500
Feb 20223,533
Jan 20223,400
Oct 20213,367
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,908
Mar 20212,533
Feb 20212,561
Jan 20212,497
Dec 20202,283
Nov 20202,350
Sept 20202,297
Aug 20202,556
Jul 20202,511
Jun 20202,504
Mar 20202,500
Feb 20202,483
Jan 20202,333
Dec 20192,350
Nov 20192,367
Oct 20192,083
Sept 20192,467
Aug 20192,667
Jul 20192,800
Jun 20192,800
May 20192,833
Mar 20192,467
Feb 20192,317
Jan 20192,160
Dec 20182,200
Nov 20182,133
Oct 20182,000
Sept 20182,667
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,080
Jun 20183,100
May 20182,867
Apr 20182,600
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,100
Jan 20181,933

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2446-62-retail-kg.