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Maize (white) in Marangara

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,147–1,793

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,113–1,778

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,147 and 1,793 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,113 and 1,778 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Marangara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,147 and 1,793 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,113 and 1,778 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,143–1,497 1,309 1,074–1,562 1,915 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,117–1,618 1,321 1,028–1,630 1,869 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,147–1,793 1,362 1,044–1,886 2,121 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,168–1,912 1,407 991–2,622 2,352 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,113–1,778 1,348 1,012–1,793 2,051 –
Price history (94 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,200
Jul 20261,200
Jun 20261,331
May 20261,075
Apr 20261,100
Mar 20261,025
Feb 20261,417
Jan 20261,725
Dec 20251,817
Nov 20251,700
Oct 20251,758
Sept 20251,624
Aug 20251,533
Jul 20251,485
Jun 20251,379
May 20251,042
Apr 20251,106
Mar 20251,475
Feb 20252,037
Jan 20252,072
Dec 20242,096
Nov 20241,880
Oct 20241,732
Sept 20241,723
Aug 20241,460
Jul 20241,250
Jun 20241,100
May 20241,217
Apr 20241,225
Mar 20241,350
Feb 20241,467
Jan 20241,744
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20231,685
Oct 20231,975
Sept 20231,752
Aug 20231,700
Jul 20231,733
Jun 20231,575
May 20231,542
Apr 20231,528
Mar 20231,492
Feb 20231,536
Jan 20231,600
Dec 20221,650
Nov 20221,454
Oct 20221,332
Sept 20221,371
Aug 20221,200
May 2022888
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022667
Feb 2022817
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021700
May 2021675
Apr 2021708
Mar 2021700
Feb 2021825
Jan 2021900
Dec 2020942
Nov 2020825
Sept 2020765
Aug 2020712
Jul 2020600
Jun 2020600
Mar 2020725
Feb 2020790
Dec 2019958
Oct 2019733
Aug 2019767
Jul 2019850
Jun 2019675
May 2019625
Mar 2019625
Feb 2019683
Jan 2019690
Dec 2018700
Nov 2018667
Oct 2018658
Sept 2018700
Aug 2018633
Jul 2018620
Jun 2018667
May 2018733
Apr 2018633
Mar 2018600
Feb 2018600
Jan 2018800
Mar 2017800
Feb 2017600
Dec 20161,500
Nov 20161,100
Oct 2016700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2446-67-retail-kg.