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Cassava flour in Marangara

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,224–2,022

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,248–2,182

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,224 and 2,022 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,248 and 2,182 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Marangara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,224 and 2,022 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,248 and 2,182 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 2,990); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,271–1,666 1,457 1,157–1,838 1,563 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,220–1,782 1,457 1,054–2,158 1,600 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,224–2,022 1,517 1,075–2,606 2,007 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,184–2,142 1,479 1,047–2,990 1,930 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,248–2,182 1,578 1,088–2,366 1,964 –
Price history (100 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,500
Jul 20261,500
Jun 20261,500
May 20261,500
Apr 20261,750
Mar 20261,375
Feb 20261,300
Jan 20261,500
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,598
Oct 20251,406
Sept 20251,272
Aug 20251,333
Jul 20251,804
Jun 20251,758
May 20251,590
Apr 20251,625
Mar 20251,741
Feb 20251,619
Jan 20251,593
Dec 20241,837
Nov 20241,707
Oct 20241,519
Sept 20241,439
Aug 20241,205
Jul 20241,325
Jun 20241,783
May 20241,633
Apr 20241,850
Mar 20241,850
Feb 20241,933
Jan 20242,022
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20231,797
Oct 20231,820
Sept 20231,698
Aug 20231,900
Jul 20231,633
Jun 20231,900
May 20231,917
Apr 20231,911
Mar 20231,757
Feb 20231,682
Jan 20231,700
Dec 20221,267
Nov 20221,212
Oct 20221,053
Sept 20221,077
Aug 2022950
May 20221,135
Apr 20221,015
Mar 20221,067
Feb 20221,000
Jan 2022967
Oct 2021833
May 20211,050
Apr 20211,105
Mar 2021983
Feb 20211,050
Jan 20211,072
Dec 2020883
Nov 2020883
Sept 2020767
Aug 2020781
Jul 2020851
Jun 2020887
Mar 2020775
Feb 2020783
Jan 2020633
Dec 2019600
Oct 2019517
Aug 2019533
Jul 2019533
Jun 2019575
May 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019517
Jan 2019480
Dec 2018433
Nov 2018483
Oct 2018433
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018558
Jul 2018560
Jun 2018733
May 2018858
Apr 2018767
Mar 2018850
Feb 20181,000
Jan 20181,000
Dec 20171,400
Nov 20171,350
May 20171,300
Apr 20171,250
Mar 20171,400
Feb 20171,233
Jan 20171,260
Dec 20161,050
Nov 2016990
Oct 2016980

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2446-74-retail-kg.