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Maize flour in Marangara

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,627–2,565

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,592–2,784

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 33% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,627 and 2,565 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,592 and 2,784 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Marangara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 33% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,627 and 2,565 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,592 and 2,784 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,995); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,556–2,123 1,899 1,433–2,468 2,242 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,577–2,273 1,973 1,444–2,962 2,429 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,627–2,565 2,024 1,429–3,701 2,648 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,650–2,621 2,094 1,408–3,869 2,742 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,592–2,784 2,019 1,295–4,995 2,570 –
Price history (100 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jul 20261,500
Jun 20261,741
May 20261,500
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,500
Feb 20262,100
Jan 20262,225
Dec 20252,350
Nov 20252,213
Oct 20252,248
Sept 20252,107
Aug 20251,933
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20251,910
May 20251,532
Apr 20251,735
Mar 20251,847
Feb 20252,606
Jan 20252,660
Dec 20242,698
Nov 20242,365
Oct 20242,283
Sept 20242,146
Aug 20241,930
Jul 20241,575
Jun 20241,492
May 20241,533
Apr 20241,750
Mar 20241,600
Feb 20242,000
Jan 20242,189
Dec 20232,450
Nov 20232,281
Oct 20232,290
Sept 20232,200
Aug 20232,200
Jul 20231,967
Jun 20231,900
May 20231,833
Apr 20231,789
Mar 20232,000
Feb 20232,098
Jan 20232,200
Dec 20222,067
Nov 20221,980
Oct 20221,673
Sept 20221,544
Aug 20221,425
May 20221,223
Apr 20221,069
Mar 2022933
Feb 20221,167
Jan 20221,167
Oct 20211,233
May 2021950
Apr 20211,005
Mar 20211,017
Feb 20211,189
Jan 20211,250
Dec 20201,175
Nov 20201,200
Sept 20201,061
Aug 2020994
Jul 2020988
Jun 20201,000
Mar 2020975
Feb 20201,267
Jan 20201,267
Dec 20191,200
Oct 20191,050
Aug 2019950
Jul 2019933
Jun 2019800
May 2019733
Mar 2019833
Feb 2019870
Jan 2019840
Dec 2018900
Nov 2018833
Oct 2018808
Sept 2018842
Aug 2018750
Jul 2018740
Jun 2018717
May 2018867
Apr 2018800
Mar 2018900
Feb 2018950
Jan 20181,167
Dec 20171,400
Nov 20171,400
May 20171,300
Apr 20171,450
Mar 20171,500
Feb 20171,667
Jan 20171,480
Dec 20161,488
Nov 20161,353
Oct 20161,440

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2446-76-retail-kg.