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Oil (vegetable) in Marangara

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,883–20,508

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

15,052–21,690

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,883 and 20,508 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 15,052 and 21,690 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Marangara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,883 and 20,508 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 15,052 and 21,690 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 29,939); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,890–18,965 17,292 15,351–20,396 18,150 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 15,720–19,753 17,384 15,346–24,653 18,838 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,883–20,508 16,819 14,688–29,939 17,387 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 15,477–21,274 17,240 15,097–26,800 18,906 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 15,052–21,690 17,331 14,587–29,117 19,305 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202618,000
Jul 202618,000
Jun 202617,562
May 202617,167
Apr 202616,000
Mar 202616,750
Feb 202618,000
Jan 202615,750
Dec 202517,500
Nov 202515,609
Oct 202516,062
Sept 202516,478
Aug 202516,000
Jul 202517,269
Jun 202516,021
May 202516,387
Apr 202515,771
Mar 202513,844
Feb 202513,389
Jan 202513,139
Dec 202412,850
Nov 202410,891
Oct 202411,097
Sept 202411,611
Aug 202412,175
Jul 202411,000
Jun 202410,333
May 202410,250
Apr 20249,750
Mar 20248,375
Feb 20249,000
Jan 20249,722
Dec 202311,250
Nov 20239,569
Oct 20239,350
Sept 20239,883
Aug 20239,333
Jul 20239,167
Jun 20239,000
May 20238,833
Apr 20238,667
Mar 20238,509
Feb 20238,196
Jan 20238,000
Dec 20228,167
Nov 20228,175
Oct 20228,292
Sept 20227,750
Aug 20228,250
May 20226,938
Apr 20227,308
Mar 20226,333
Feb 20226,100
Jan 20225,100
Oct 20216,500
May 20214,250
Apr 20214,434
Mar 20214,333
Feb 20214,361
Jan 20214,111
Dec 20204,167
Nov 20203,667
Sept 20203,692
Aug 20203,969
Jul 20203,846
Jun 20203,741
Mar 20203,500
Feb 20203,583
Jan 20203,833
Dec 20193,550
Nov 20193,400
Oct 20193,500
Sept 20193,450
Aug 20193,500
Jul 20193,500
Jun 20193,250
May 20193,417
Mar 20193,367
Feb 20193,500
Jan 20193,340
Dec 20183,250
Nov 20183,333
Oct 20183,833
Sept 20184,000
Aug 20184,167
Jul 20184,100
Jun 20184,167
May 20184,250
Apr 20183,333
Mar 20183,500
Feb 20183,500
Jan 20184,667

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2446-96-retail-kg.