Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Food basket in Marangara

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,435–38,062

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

26,144–40,092

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,610 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,435 and 38,062 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,144 and 40,092 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Marangara: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,610 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,435 and 38,062 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,144 and 40,092 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 54,596); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,943–32,639 29,479 25,409–34,906
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,336–34,125 29,538 24,269–39,006
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,435–38,062 30,760 24,380–46,050
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,804–40,849 30,640 23,773–54,596
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 26,144–40,092 31,287 23,773–46,459
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202629,610
Jul 202629,400
Jun 202629,249
May 202633,760
Apr 202635,895
Mar 202628,575
Feb 202627,000
Jan 202628,440
Dec 202529,460
Nov 202531,916
Oct 202530,168
Sept 202528,255
Aug 202528,840
Jul 202533,847
Jun 202533,182
May 202531,304
Apr 202531,424
Mar 202532,364
Feb 202529,551
Jan 202529,284
Dec 202433,205
Nov 202430,362
Oct 202428,106
Sept 202426,737
Aug 202423,491
Jul 202424,314
Jun 202429,566
May 202427,764
Apr 202430,521
Mar 202430,701
Feb 202431,296
Jan 202432,335
Dec 202332,218
Nov 202329,637
Oct 202331,041
Sept 202329,041
Aug 202331,281
Jul 202327,204
Jun 202330,464
May 202331,521
Apr 202332,438
Mar 202329,950
Feb 202328,476
Jan 202328,005
Dec 202222,330
Nov 202221,292
Oct 202218,500
Sept 202218,696
Aug 202217,235
May 202220,508
Apr 202217,876
Mar 202216,895
Feb 202216,358
Jan 202215,686
Oct 202114,603
May 202116,560
Apr 202117,093
Mar 202115,858
Feb 202116,667
Jan 202116,500
Dec 202014,793
Nov 202015,071
Sept 202013,236
Aug 202013,648
Jul 202014,024
Jun 202014,232
Mar 202013,455
Feb 202013,273
Jan 202011,190
Dec 201910,892
Oct 20199,798
Aug 201910,190
Jul 201910,462
Jun 201910,182
May 201910,115
Mar 20199,832
Feb 20199,899
Jan 20199,338
Dec 20189,088
Nov 20189,402
Oct 20188,680
Sept 20189,820
Aug 201810,630
Jul 201810,861
Jun 201812,784
May 201813,778
Apr 201812,434
Mar 201813,296
Feb 201814,799
Jan 201814,834

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620