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Oil (palm) in Masanganzira

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,010–11,063

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,828–11,883

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,010 and 11,063 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,828 and 11,883 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Masanganzira: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,010 and 11,063 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,828 and 11,883 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,809); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,570–10,700 9,491 8,140–10,826 10,569 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,909–10,557 9,093 7,730–11,146 9,723 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,010–11,063 9,115 7,444–12,851 9,805 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,829–11,205 9,047 7,224–12,928 9,612 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,828–11,883 9,214 6,894–15,809 10,236 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,833
Jun 202610,250
May 202610,500
Apr 202610,750
Mar 202610,779
Feb 202610,889
Jan 20269,500
Dec 202510,583
Nov 202511,167
Oct 202511,000
Sept 202511,645
Aug 202510,667
Jul 202511,404
Jun 202510,759
May 202510,833
Apr 202510,167
Mar 20259,583
Feb 20257,578
Jan 20256,365
Dec 20245,463
Nov 20246,151
Oct 20245,752
Sept 20245,562
Aug 20245,858
Jul 20246,026
Jun 20245,600
May 20245,250
Mar 20245,289
Feb 20245,600
Jan 20245,311
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20235,833
Sept 20236,083
Aug 20235,950
Jul 20234,974
Jun 20235,044
May 20234,514
Apr 20234,589
Mar 20234,283
Feb 20234,313
Jan 20234,200
Dec 20223,973
Nov 20223,997
Oct 20223,917
Sept 20224,313
Aug 20224,965
May 20224,700
Apr 20224,100
Mar 20223,839
Feb 20223,800
Jan 20223,500
May 20212,850
Apr 20212,780
Mar 20212,552
Feb 20212,600
Jan 20212,533
Dec 20202,267
Nov 20202,283
Oct 20202,200
Sept 20202,250
Aug 20202,467
Jul 20202,425
Jun 20202,420
Mar 20202,483
Feb 20202,350
Jan 20202,425
Dec 20192,383
Nov 20192,217
Oct 20192,033
Sept 20192,320
Aug 20192,533
Jul 20192,610
Jun 20192,633
May 20192,617
Mar 20192,333
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,000
Dec 20181,967
Nov 20181,900
Oct 20182,117
Sept 20182,767
Aug 20182,929
Jul 20182,833
Jun 20182,800
May 20182,760
Apr 20182,350
Mar 20182,100
Feb 20182,050
Jan 20181,971

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2447-62-retail-kg.