Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Maize (white) in Masanganzira

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,380–2,139

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,322–2,546

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,380 and 2,139 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,322 and 2,546 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Masanganzira: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,380 and 2,139 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,322 and 2,546 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,109); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,355–1,686 1,486 1,244–2,132 1,911 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,330–1,873 1,530 1,171–2,692 1,982 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,380–2,139 1,572 1,182–3,606 2,144 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,373–2,343 1,611 1,161–5,500 2,126 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,322–2,546 1,583 1,114–7,109 2,065 –
Price history (102 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,475
Jun 20261,292
May 20261,292
Apr 20261,125
Mar 20261,385
Feb 20261,552
Jan 20261,675
Dec 20251,642
Nov 20251,739
Oct 20251,694
Sept 20251,578
Aug 20251,567
Jul 20251,523
Jun 20251,550
May 20251,183
Apr 20251,189
Mar 20251,200
Feb 20251,728
Jan 20252,244
Dec 20242,352
Nov 20241,912
Oct 20241,904
Sept 20241,888
Aug 20241,759
Jul 20241,397
Jun 20241,233
May 20241,025
Mar 20241,317
Feb 20241,533
Jan 20241,789
Nov 20231,900
Oct 20231,975
Sept 20231,939
Aug 20231,702
Jul 20231,544
Jun 20231,561
May 20231,476
Apr 20231,389
Mar 20231,658
Feb 20231,493
Jan 20231,500
Dec 20221,741
Nov 20221,813
Oct 20221,477
Sept 20221,504
Aug 20221,365
May 2022994
Apr 2022883
Mar 2022736
Feb 2022800
Jan 20221,075
May 2021750
Apr 2021720
Mar 2021735
Feb 2021817
Jan 20211,067
Dec 20201,008
Nov 20201,017
Oct 2020833
Sept 2020775
Aug 2020767
Jul 2020694
Jun 2020670
Mar 2020650
Feb 2020667
Jan 20201,138
Dec 20191,117
Oct 2019900
Aug 2019775
Jul 2019870
Jun 2019550
May 2019525
Mar 2019475
Feb 2019700
Jan 2019667
Dec 2018667
Nov 2018625
Oct 2018625
Sept 2018600
Aug 2018589
Jul 2018583
Jun 2018542
May 2018520
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018550
Feb 2018642
Jan 2018825
Dec 2017950
Nov 20171,025
Oct 20171,070
Sept 20171,088
Aug 20171,112
Jul 20171,050
Jun 20171,120
May 20171,100
Apr 20171,133
Mar 20171,092
Feb 20171,138
Jan 20171,200
Dec 20161,125
Nov 20161,121
Oct 2016980

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2447-67-retail-kg.