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Cassava flour in Masanganzira

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,053–1,710

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,070–1,988

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 28% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,053 and 1,710 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,070 and 1,988 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Masanganzira: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 28% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,053 and 1,710 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,070 and 1,988 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,0002,500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,378); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,047–1,376 1,206 973–1,513 1,384 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,042–1,530 1,227 902–1,817 1,371 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,053–1,710 1,252 873–2,231 1,590 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,004–1,711 1,222 882–2,293 1,404 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,070–1,988 1,287 923–3,378 1,586 –
Price history (102 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,150
Jun 20261,733
May 20261,608
Apr 20261,475
Mar 20261,309
Feb 20261,143
Jan 20261,308
Dec 20251,192
Nov 20251,091
Oct 20251,261
Sept 20251,277
Aug 20251,300
Jul 20251,575
Jun 20251,666
May 20251,417
Apr 20251,311
Mar 20251,350
Feb 20251,222
Jan 20251,248
Dec 20241,241
Nov 20241,608
Oct 20241,315
Sept 20241,200
Aug 20241,375
Jul 20241,365
Jun 20241,400
May 20241,383
Mar 20241,500
Feb 20241,600
Jan 20241,678
Nov 20231,633
Oct 20231,556
Sept 20231,561
Aug 20231,438
Jul 20231,424
Jun 20231,656
May 20231,534
Apr 20231,722
Mar 20231,758
Feb 20231,512
Jan 20231,400
Dec 20221,136
Nov 20221,223
Oct 20221,073
Sept 20221,013
Aug 20221,000
May 20221,011
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022950
Feb 2022900
Jan 20221,000
May 20211,000
Apr 2021891
Mar 2021812
Feb 2021883
Jan 2021967
Dec 2020800
Nov 2020775
Oct 2020650
Sept 2020650
Aug 2020667
Jul 2020701
Jun 2020765
Mar 2020700
Feb 2020667
Jan 2020625
Dec 2019575
Oct 2019433
Aug 2019467
Jul 2019430
Jun 2019533
May 2019517
Mar 2019492
Feb 2019590
Jan 2019442
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018488
Oct 2018475
Sept 2018433
Aug 2018504
Jul 2018567
Jun 2018600
May 2018660
Apr 2018750
Mar 2018733
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018871
Dec 2017950
Nov 2017933
Oct 2017980
Sept 2017900
Aug 20171,025
Jul 20171,125
Jun 20171,160
May 20171,233
Apr 20171,275
Mar 20171,283
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,133
Dec 20161,008
Nov 2016904
Oct 2016720

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2447-74-retail-kg.