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Maize flour in Masanganzira

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,560–2,358

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,479–2,736

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,560 and 2,358 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,479 and 2,736 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Masanganzira: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,560 and 2,358 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,479 and 2,736 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,603); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,537–1,852 1,675 1,442–2,108 2,131 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,507–2,083 1,727 1,348–2,772 2,244 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,560–2,358 1,783 1,353–3,808 2,420 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,531–2,538 1,799 1,335–5,141 2,357 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,479–2,736 1,776 1,290–6,603 2,325 –
Price history (102 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,642
Jun 20261,517
May 20261,483
Apr 20261,350
Mar 20261,662
Feb 20261,800
Jan 20261,983
Dec 20251,875
Nov 20252,000
Oct 20252,000
Sept 20251,899
Aug 20251,767
Jul 20251,723
Jun 20251,702
May 20251,433
Apr 20251,406
Mar 20251,550
Feb 20252,100
Jan 20252,446
Dec 20242,552
Nov 20242,282
Oct 20242,161
Sept 20242,088
Aug 20241,931
Jul 20241,497
Jun 20241,417
May 20241,200
Mar 20241,489
Feb 20241,733
Jan 20242,006
Nov 20232,033
Oct 20232,172
Sept 20232,067
Aug 20231,802
Jul 20231,665
Jun 20231,661
May 20231,611
Apr 20231,589
Mar 20231,800
Feb 20231,687
Jan 20231,700
Dec 20221,986
Nov 20222,055
Oct 20221,942
Sept 20221,617
Aug 20221,465
May 20221,094
Apr 20221,033
Mar 2022894
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,250
May 2021950
Apr 2021833
Mar 2021829
Feb 20211,017
Jan 20211,183
Dec 20201,150
Nov 20201,150
Oct 2020933
Sept 2020925
Aug 2020900
Jul 2020794
Jun 2020800
Mar 2020800
Feb 2020850
Jan 20201,238
Dec 20191,217
Oct 20191,000
Aug 2019900
Jul 2019980
Jun 2019633
May 2019625
Mar 2019667
Feb 2019890
Jan 2019783
Dec 2018758
Nov 2018750
Oct 2018708
Sept 2018708
Aug 2018700
Jul 2018683
Jun 2018650
May 2018640
Apr 2018625
Mar 2018717
Feb 2018833
Jan 2018986
Dec 20171,050
Nov 20171,183
Oct 20171,180
Sept 20171,162
Aug 20171,212
Jul 20171,175
Jun 20171,220
May 20171,250
Apr 20171,292
Mar 20171,275
Feb 20171,275
Jan 20171,367
Dec 20161,283
Nov 20161,238
Oct 20161,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2447-76-retail-kg.