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Oil (vegetable) in Masanganzira

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 10% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,659–21,802

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,652–22,769

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

11%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,659 and 21,802 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,652 and 22,769 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 11%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Masanganzira: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,659 and 21,802 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,652 and 22,769 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 11%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 28,513); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,747–20,044 16,812 11,858–22,497 18,182 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,409–19,846 16,576 11,385–26,193 16,754 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,659–21,802 16,433 11,403–27,676 18,354 11%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,584–22,389 16,243 11,174–28,513 18,538 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,652–22,769 16,463 11,002–26,291 18,974 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202618,083
Jun 202617,500
May 202616,750
Apr 202618,000
Mar 202616,778
Feb 202616,370
Jan 202617,167
Dec 202519,000
Nov 202519,826
Oct 202515,516
Sept 202516,783
Aug 202516,333
Jul 202514,442
Jun 202514,586
May 202518,750
Apr 202516,222
Mar 202514,167
Feb 202515,250
Jan 202514,677
Dec 202412,889
Nov 202413,510
Oct 202412,220
Sept 202415,594
Aug 20249,958
Jul 20249,941
Jun 202410,350
May 20249,833
Mar 20248,417
Feb 20248,417
Jan 20248,189
Nov 20239,333
Oct 20239,194
Sept 20238,611
Aug 20237,412
Jul 20238,428
Jun 20238,083
May 20237,843
Apr 20237,889
Mar 20238,792
Feb 20237,717
Jan 20238,500
Dec 20227,505
Nov 20228,080
Oct 20226,500
Sept 20227,685
Aug 20226,875
May 20226,167
Apr 20226,667
Mar 20226,144
Feb 20226,500
Jan 20226,500
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,243
Mar 20214,873
Feb 20215,283
Jan 20215,350
Dec 20205,433
Nov 20204,533
Oct 20204,233
Sept 20204,400
Aug 20204,467
Jul 20204,246
Jun 20204,974
Mar 20204,583
Feb 20204,333
Jan 20204,750
Dec 20193,850
Nov 20193,967
Oct 20193,833
Sept 20194,100
Aug 20193,850
Jul 20194,070
Jun 20193,833
May 20194,083
Mar 20193,917
Feb 20194,667
Jan 20193,683
Dec 20183,683
Nov 20183,675
Oct 20183,833
Sept 20184,000
Aug 20184,071
Jul 20184,033
Jun 20183,633
May 20184,100
Apr 20185,000
Mar 20183,833
Feb 20184,750
Jan 20183,357

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2447-96-retail-kg.