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Food basket in Masanganzira

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

23,431–33,876

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

23,612–39,178

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 25,145 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,431 and 33,876 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,612 and 39,178 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Masanganzira: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 25,145 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,431 and 33,876 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,612 and 39,178 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 59,107); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 23,980–28,928 26,202 22,744–31,074
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 23,339–31,058 26,304 21,559–35,127
Nov 2026
Next month		 23,431–33,876 26,977 21,541–40,201
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 23,060–34,112 26,658 21,523–41,679
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 23,612–39,178 27,679 21,572–59,107
Cost history (87 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202625,145
Jun 202632,612
May 202633,407
Apr 202632,182
Mar 202628,978
Feb 202626,284
Jan 202626,935
Dec 202526,103
Nov 202525,282
Oct 202527,429
Sept 202527,875
Aug 202527,520
Jul 202531,244
Jun 202531,758
May 202528,825
Apr 202527,518
Mar 202528,212
Feb 202525,370
Jan 202524,429
Dec 202425,052
Nov 202429,330
Oct 202425,354
Sept 202423,008
Aug 202424,949
Jul 202424,664
Jun 202424,384
May 202424,452
Mar 202426,489
Feb 202427,504
Jan 202427,788
Nov 202327,895
Oct 202327,722
Sept 202327,471
Aug 202325,558
Jul 202324,119
Jun 202326,837
May 202326,268
Apr 202330,093
Mar 202329,860
Feb 202326,573
Jan 202324,198
Dec 202220,158
Nov 202221,242
Oct 202218,598
Sept 202217,905
Aug 202217,721
May 202218,136
Apr 202217,529
Mar 202216,109
Feb 202215,582
Jan 202216,305
May 202115,766
Apr 202114,786
Mar 202113,873
Feb 202115,094
Jan 202115,568
Dec 202013,774
Nov 202013,635
Oct 202012,078
Sept 202011,918
Aug 202012,102
Jul 202012,085
Jun 202012,742
Mar 202012,394
Feb 202011,632
Jan 202011,018
Dec 201910,464
Oct 20198,463
Aug 20199,088
Jul 20198,833
Jun 20199,687
May 20199,896
Mar 20199,430
Feb 201910,578
Jan 20198,480
Dec 20188,317
Nov 20189,051
Oct 20189,020
Sept 20188,909
Aug 20189,723
Jul 201810,345
Jun 201810,692
May 201811,588
Apr 201812,016
Mar 201811,629
Feb 201812,454
Jan 201813,412

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620