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Oil (palm) in Mishiha

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,491–9,208

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,292–9,458

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,491 and 9,208 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,292 and 9,458 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mishiha: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,491 and 9,208 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,292 and 9,458 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,836–8,697 7,580 6,532–9,092 9,228 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,604–8,830 7,551 6,202–10,034 9,471 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,491–9,208 7,617 6,016–11,117 9,141 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,327–9,592 7,531 5,964–12,961 8,858 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,292–9,458 7,648 5,756–11,066 8,937 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20267,750
Jul 20267,250
Jun 20268,008
May 20267,725
Apr 20267,917
Mar 20267,603
Feb 20268,061
Jan 20267,755
Dec 20257,930
Nov 20258,685
Oct 20258,467
Sept 20258,478
Aug 202510,242
Jul 20259,500
Jun 20258,539
May 202511,882
Apr 202510,100
Mar 20259,758
Feb 20258,238
Jan 20257,078
Dec 20246,387
Nov 20246,556
Oct 20246,436
Sept 20246,911
Aug 20246,797
Jul 20246,889
Jun 20246,117
May 20246,137
Apr 20245,453
Mar 20245,978
Feb 20245,722
Jan 20245,875
Dec 20235,400
Nov 20236,200
Oct 20236,171
Sept 20236,146
Aug 20236,280
Jul 20235,488
Jun 20235,331
May 20234,615
Apr 20234,485
Mar 20235,119
Feb 20234,769
Jan 20234,000
Dec 20224,167
Nov 20224,617
Oct 20224,819
Sept 20224,814
Aug 20225,333
Jul 20225,333
May 20224,260
Apr 20223,933
Mar 20223,600
Feb 20223,433
Jan 20223,533
Sept 20213,850
May 20212,833
Apr 20212,686
Mar 20212,567
Feb 20212,650
Jan 20212,506
Dec 20202,544
Nov 20202,287
Sept 20202,250
Aug 20202,404
Jul 20202,324
Jun 20202,370
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,600
Jan 20202,375
Dec 20192,480
Nov 20192,583
Oct 20192,433
Sept 20192,383
Aug 20192,850
Jul 20192,950
Jun 20192,800
May 20193,160
Mar 20192,883
Feb 20192,417
Jan 20192,683
Dec 20182,900
Nov 20182,700
Oct 20182,500
Sept 20183,033
Aug 20183,640
Jul 20183,525
Jun 20183,200
May 20182,775
Apr 20182,564
Mar 20182,017
Feb 20182,100
Jan 20182,200

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2448-62-retail-kg.