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Cassava flour in Mishiha

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,314–2,605

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,349–2,850

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,314 and 2,605 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,349 and 2,850 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mishiha: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,314 and 2,605 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,349 and 2,850 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,565); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,358–2,037 1,693 1,304–2,299 2,008 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,330–2,146 1,698 1,161–2,683 2,145 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,314–2,605 1,725 1,236–4,018 2,507 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,320–2,710 1,713 1,266–4,365 2,279 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,349–2,850 1,728 1,234–4,565 2,329 –
Price history (99 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,675
Jul 20261,300
Jun 20261,227
May 20261,613
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,690
Feb 20261,695
Jan 20261,963
Dec 20251,813
Nov 20251,652
Oct 20251,636
Sept 20251,833
Aug 20251,983
Jul 20252,100
Jun 20252,041
May 20251,943
Apr 20251,971
Mar 20252,009
Feb 20251,761
Jan 20251,723
Dec 20241,906
Nov 20242,217
Oct 20242,152
Sept 20242,182
Aug 20241,808
Jul 20241,994
Jun 20241,815
May 20241,996
Apr 20241,628
Mar 20242,031
Feb 20242,009
Jan 20241,896
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,050
Oct 20232,079
Sept 20231,938
Aug 20231,960
Jul 20231,721
Jun 20231,610
May 20231,877
Apr 20231,988
Mar 20231,926
Feb 20231,660
Jan 20231,350
Dec 20221,133
Nov 20221,183
Oct 2022977
Sept 2022894
Aug 2022956
Jul 2022933
May 2022951
Apr 2022967
Mar 2022917
Feb 20221,033
Jan 20221,033
Sept 2021767
May 2021867
Apr 2021737
Mar 2021765
Feb 2021950
Jan 2021720
Dec 2020845
Nov 2020664
Sept 2020630
Aug 2020685
Jul 2020601
Jun 2020509
Mar 2020512
Feb 2020547
Jan 2020525
Dec 2019542
Oct 2019330
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019325
Jun 2019392
May 2019440
Mar 2019567
Feb 2019433
Jan 2019667
Dec 2018680
Nov 2018700
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018700
Aug 2018470
Jul 2018812
Jun 2018738
May 2018800
Apr 2018857
Mar 2018833
Feb 20181,000
Jan 20181,000
Nov 20171,200
Oct 20171,200
Aug 20171,200
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016800
Oct 2016700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2448-74-retail-kg.