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Maize flour in Mishiha

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,497–2,470

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,476–2,511

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,497 and 2,470 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,476 and 2,511 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mishiha: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,497 and 2,470 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,476 and 2,511 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,384–1,924 1,653 1,218–2,037 2,082 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,473–2,244 1,758 1,363–2,741 2,628 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,497–2,470 1,766 1,339–3,389 2,724 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,493–2,529 1,767 1,310–3,203 2,556 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,476–2,511 1,805 1,232–2,609 2,815 –
Price history (99 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,550
Jul 20261,550
Jun 20261,492
May 20261,526
Apr 20261,350
Mar 20261,420
Feb 20261,984
Jan 20262,610
Dec 20252,323
Nov 20252,092
Oct 20251,960
Sept 20251,900
Aug 20252,433
Jul 20252,200
Jun 20251,864
May 20251,906
Apr 20251,821
Mar 20252,108
Feb 20252,191
Jan 20252,615
Dec 20242,799
Nov 20242,432
Oct 20242,736
Sept 20241,951
Aug 20241,832
Jul 20241,594
Jun 20241,438
May 20241,614
Apr 20241,456
Mar 20241,609
Feb 20241,520
Jan 20242,167
Dec 20231,700
Nov 20232,125
Oct 20232,263
Sept 20232,084
Aug 20232,096
Jul 20231,742
Jun 20231,706
May 20231,607
Apr 20231,651
Mar 20232,121
Feb 20232,046
Jan 20231,600
Dec 20221,433
Nov 20221,883
Oct 20221,692
Sept 20221,575
Aug 20221,500
Jul 20221,350
May 20221,141
Apr 20221,017
Mar 2022917
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,267
Sept 2021950
May 2021777
Apr 2021802
Mar 2021783
Feb 20211,133
Jan 20211,070
Dec 20201,140
Nov 20201,024
Sept 2020908
Aug 2020982
Jul 2020836
Jun 2020663
Mar 2020700
Feb 20201,000
Jan 20201,450
Dec 20191,180
Oct 20191,025
Aug 2019900
Jul 2019940
Jun 2019675
May 2019700
Mar 2019908
Feb 2019834
Jan 20191,217
Dec 20181,010
Nov 2018890
Oct 2018700
Sept 2018933
Aug 2018640
Jul 2018833
Jun 2018875
May 2018750
Apr 2018771
Mar 2018600
Feb 2018883
Jan 20181,500
Nov 20171,700
Oct 20171,700
Aug 20171,800
Feb 20171,500
Jan 20171,650
Dec 20161,500
Nov 20161,400
Oct 20161,200

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2448-76-retail-kg.