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Oil (vegetable) in Mishiha

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,831–17,189

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,585–17,205

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,831 and 17,189 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,585 and 17,205 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mishiha: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,831 and 17,189 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,585 and 17,205 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,772–15,906 13,976 12,231–16,296 16,631 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,677–16,548 14,063 12,103–17,347 17,296 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,831–17,189 13,982 11,688–20,243 16,727 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,771–17,244 14,087 11,447–17,526 17,240 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,585–17,205 14,261 11,729–17,549 18,031 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,500
Jul 202612,500
Jun 202613,667
May 202614,206
Apr 202616,300
Mar 202613,894
Feb 202614,643
Jan 202614,686
Dec 202515,000
Nov 202516,125
Oct 202516,263
Sept 202515,667
Aug 202515,667
Jul 202515,333
Jun 202513,917
May 202514,784
Apr 202515,708
Mar 202515,432
Feb 202514,494
Jan 202513,539
Dec 202413,838
Nov 202412,943
Oct 202413,258
Sept 202412,000
Aug 202412,718
Jul 202411,722
Jun 202411,594
May 20249,716
Apr 20249,984
Mar 202410,348
Feb 202410,157
Jan 20249,500
Dec 20239,667
Nov 202310,000
Oct 20239,737
Sept 20239,625
Aug 202310,440
Jul 20239,979
Jun 202310,417
May 20239,104
Apr 20239,594
Mar 20239,402
Feb 20239,656
Jan 20238,500
Dec 20229,000
Nov 20228,833
Oct 20228,885
Sept 20228,900
Aug 20228,556
Jul 20228,833
May 20228,978
Apr 20228,667
Mar 20228,917
Feb 20228,833
Jan 20228,167
Sept 20217,925
May 20215,833
Apr 20215,812
Mar 20215,927
Feb 20215,917
Jan 20215,899
Dec 20205,108
Nov 20205,228
Sept 20204,950
Aug 20204,796
Jul 20205,089
Jun 20205,054
Mar 20205,500
Feb 20204,917
Jan 20204,900
Dec 20194,600
Nov 20193,933
Oct 20194,150
Sept 20194,283
Aug 20194,200
Jul 20194,067
Jun 20194,075
May 20194,620
Mar 20194,333
Feb 20194,340
Jan 20194,333
Dec 20185,100
Nov 20184,620
Oct 20184,650
Sept 20184,367
Aug 20184,660
Jul 20184,675
Jun 20184,875
May 20184,900
Apr 20185,100
Mar 20184,267
Feb 20184,500
Jan 20185,250

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2448-96-retail-kg.