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Food basket in Mishiha

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,670–43,599

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

25,891–48,456

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,488 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,670 and 43,599 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,891 and 48,456 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mishiha: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,488 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,670 and 43,599 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,891 and 48,456 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 67,437); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 27,006–35,824 30,938 25,667–39,341
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,674–37,447 31,241 24,281–44,081
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,670–43,599 32,307 24,941–60,267
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,514–45,702 32,219 25,025–67,169
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 25,891–48,456 32,032 23,876–67,437
Cost history (91 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202630,488
Jul 202624,742
Jun 202624,076
May 202630,154
Apr 202630,468
Mar 202630,906
Feb 202630,533
Jan 202633,093
Dec 202532,380
Nov 202530,603
Oct 202530,485
Sept 202532,350
Aug 202535,817
Jul 202536,255
Jun 202535,217
May 202537,160
Apr 202536,236
Mar 202537,484
Feb 202532,369
Jan 202530,651
Dec 202434,402
Nov 202437,551
Oct 202435,839
Sept 202436,767
Aug 202431,501
Jul 202433,057
Jun 202430,319
May 202433,288
Apr 202428,678
Mar 202432,804
Feb 202432,186
Jan 202429,834
Dec 202332,106
Nov 202333,243
Oct 202333,929
Sept 202332,403
Aug 202332,501
Jul 202328,696
Jun 202326,945
May 202330,952
Apr 202333,301
Mar 202332,424
Feb 202328,338
Jan 202325,170
Dec 202221,095
Nov 202223,235
Oct 202219,494
Sept 202218,560
Aug 202218,077
Jul 202217,700
May 202216,861
Apr 202216,654
Mar 202215,674
Feb 202216,707
Jan 202216,848
Sept 202113,987
May 202114,635
Apr 202113,251
Mar 202113,584
Feb 202115,988
Jan 202112,516
Dec 202015,538
Nov 202012,988
Sept 202012,293
Aug 202012,936
Jul 202011,579
Jun 202010,306
Mar 202010,416
Feb 202010,454
Jan 20209,739
Dec 201910,843
Oct 20198,069
Aug 20198,446
Jul 20198,245
Jun 20198,352
May 20199,044
Mar 201910,830
Feb 20198,517
Jan 201911,997
Dec 201812,609
Nov 201812,207
Oct 20189,720
Sept 201812,248
Aug 20189,754
Jul 201813,802
Jun 201812,520
May 201813,000
Apr 201813,482
Mar 201812,639
Feb 201814,631
Jan 201814,958

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620