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Oil (palm) in Muhanga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,604–11,503

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,428–12,564

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,604 and 11,503 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,428 and 12,564 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Muhanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,604 and 11,503 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,428 and 12,564 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 18,598); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,252–10,809 9,157 7,700–11,221 11,059 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,837–10,746 8,951 7,362–11,058 10,644 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,604–11,503 8,898 7,172–15,919 10,000 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,507–11,684 9,076 6,797–13,164 10,342 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,428–12,564 9,219 6,689–18,598 10,780 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jun 20269,750
May 202610,667
Apr 202610,000
Mar 20269,729
Feb 202610,641
Jan 20269,000
Dec 202510,000
Nov 202510,875
Oct 202510,794
Sept 202511,417
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,846
Jun 202512,542
May 202511,667
Apr 202511,118
Mar 20259,728
Feb 20258,825
Jan 20257,086
Dec 20246,326
Nov 20245,875
Oct 20246,333
Sept 20245,933
Aug 20246,607
Jul 20246,788
Jun 20246,678
May 20246,519
Apr 20245,750
Mar 20245,788
Feb 20245,643
Jan 20245,992
Dec 20235,625
Nov 20235,883
Oct 20235,912
Sept 20236,859
Aug 20235,825
Jul 20235,611
Jun 20235,597
May 20235,277
Apr 20235,000
Mar 20234,775
Feb 20234,592
Dec 20224,576
Nov 20224,125
Oct 20224,417
Sept 20225,018
Aug 20225,050
Jul 20225,750
May 20224,468
Apr 20223,800
Mar 20223,550
Feb 20223,550
Jan 20223,450
Oct 20213,867
May 20212,867
Apr 20212,789
Mar 20212,450
Feb 20212,417
Jan 20212,525
Dec 20202,433
Nov 20202,200
Sept 20202,267
Aug 20202,419
Jul 20202,513
Jun 20202,544
Mar 20202,440
Feb 20202,500
Jan 20202,267
Dec 20192,380
Nov 20192,220
Oct 20192,167
Sept 20192,450
Aug 20192,650
Jul 20192,683
Jun 20192,733
May 20192,580
Mar 20192,333
Feb 20192,192
Jan 20192,050
Dec 20182,033
Nov 20182,000
Oct 20181,933
Sept 20182,367
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,140
Jun 20183,117
May 20182,700
Apr 20182,333
Mar 20182,200
Feb 20182,000
Jan 20182,200

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2449-62-retail-kg.