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Cassava flour in Muhanga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 16% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,148–2,310

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,107–2,572

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 33% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,148 and 2,310 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,107 and 2,572 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Muhanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 33% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,148 and 2,310 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,107 and 2,572 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,844); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,250–1,875 1,601 1,102–2,208 1,476 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,153–1,999 1,561 1,016–2,717 1,456 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,148–2,310 1,533 967–3,443 1,660 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,109–2,442 1,541 969–4,489 1,567 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,107–2,572 1,547 949–4,844 1,550 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,800
Jun 20261,475
May 20261,354
Apr 20261,600
Mar 20261,758
Feb 20261,459
Jan 20261,200
Dec 2025900
Nov 20251,096
Oct 20251,020
Sept 20251,029
Aug 20251,567
Jul 20251,467
Jun 20251,671
May 20251,183
Apr 20251,094
Mar 20251,130
Feb 20251,146
Jan 20251,174
Dec 20241,533
Nov 20241,558
Oct 20241,567
Sept 20241,253
Aug 20241,481
Jul 20241,625
Jun 20241,400
May 20241,656
Apr 20241,650
Mar 20241,718
Feb 20241,761
Jan 20241,933
Dec 20231,875
Nov 20231,583
Oct 20231,788
Sept 20231,800
Aug 20231,835
Jul 20231,940
Jun 20231,939
May 20231,950
Apr 20231,917
Mar 20231,642
Feb 20231,583
Dec 20221,264
Nov 20221,288
Oct 20221,044
Sept 2022905
Aug 20221,100
Jul 20221,100
May 20221,064
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022900
Feb 2022850
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021800
May 2021967
Apr 2021889
Mar 2021850
Feb 2021867
Jan 2021925
Dec 2020850
Nov 2020833
Sept 2020725
Aug 2020674
Jul 2020700
Jun 2020689
Mar 2020588
Feb 2020550
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019560
Oct 2019483
Aug 2019467
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019567
May 2019510
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018492
Nov 2018492
Oct 2018442
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018560
Jun 2018600
May 2018650
Apr 2018722
Mar 2018800
Feb 2018833
Jan 2018933
Dec 2017983
Nov 20171,060
Oct 20171,067
Sept 20171,150
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,188
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,200
Feb 20171,000
Jan 20171,061
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016923
Oct 2016775

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2449-74-retail-kg.